Texas (11-2) has enjoyed one of their strongest regular seasons in recent memory, with their only significant stumble coming in a 30-15 defeat against SEC powerhouse Georgia. The Longhorns dominated nearly every opponent this season, posting a win expectancy of 96% or higher in all games except a sluggish 20-10 victory over Arkansas, which saw a much closer 52% win expectancy. Unfortunately, Texas was unable to turn the tables on Georgia in their highly anticipated rematch during the SEC Championship, falling just short in a narrow 22-19 loss.
Under head coach Steve Sarkisian, the Longhorns have crafted an impressive offense, ranking 8th in SP+ metrics. Their ground attack has been particularly effective, sitting at 13th in rushing success rate, while their passing game remains efficient, standing at 21st in EPA per dropback. However, what truly sets Texas apart is their relentless defense, which ranks 2nd nationally and has consistently imposed its will on opponents.
Texas’ secondary has been outstanding all season, allowing just 4.1 yards per dropback—the best mark in the country—and ranking 2nd in EPA per dropback. While the run defense has also been impressive, ranking 7th in EPA per rush, it does show some vulnerability, as opponents have managed a 42.3% success rate on the ground, placing Texas 61st in that metric.
Clemson (10-3), on the other hand, began their season in dismal fashion, suffering a humbling 34-3 loss to Georgia. The defeat dealt an early blow to the Tigers’ hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. Despite the rough start, Clemson rebounded with a string of six consecutive victories. However, their momentum was abruptly halted in a 33-21 home loss to Louisville—a game in which they had just an 18% win expectancy. The loss further derailed their pursuit of an ACC Championship berth.
Undeterred, Clemson regrouped to win three straight matchups against Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and The Citadel. Despite the mini-resurgence, their resume lacked a marquee win heading into a crucial final regular-season matchup against in-state rival South Carolina. In a low-scoring battle, Clemson came up short, losing 17-14, which seemed to put a damper on their season. Nevertheless, the Tigers salvaged their year with a thrilling ACC Championship victory over SMU. Prior to that conference title game, Clemson’s only win over a team with a winning record came in Week 12, when they narrowly defeated Pittsburgh 24-20.
Offensively, the Tigers have leaned heavily on their ability to protect the ball and run effectively. Clemson boasts an impressive +16 turnover margin, the second-best mark in the FBS, which has helped keep them competitive in tight games. Their ground game has been a highlight, ranking 12th nationally in rushing success rate.
Defensively, Clemson’s secondary has been a reliable unit, allowing opponents to complete just 55.5% of their passes—good for 14th in the nation. The secondary has also been effective in limiting explosive plays through the air, ranking 20th in that category. However, the Tigers have struggled mightily against the run. Opponents have exploited their defensive line, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, which ranks Clemson a lowly 106th in the country. Moreover, when opposing teams find success on the ground, they do so in big chunks, averaging an eye-popping 11.1 yards per successful rush—ranking Clemson 119th nationally in that category.
The matchup between Texas and Clemson promises to be an intriguing clash of strengths and weaknesses. Texas enters the contest as a balanced powerhouse, combining an elite offense with a stifling defense that can shut down both the pass and the run. The Longhorns’ passing game, while not the flashiest, is methodical and efficient, with their offensive line creating opportunities for a strong rushing attack. This balance gives Texas the ability to control the pace of the game and wear down defenses over four quarters.
Defensively, Texas’ elite secondary will likely pose significant challenges for Clemson’s offense. The Longhorns’ ability to shut down opposing passing attacks makes it difficult for teams to catch up if they fall behind early. Clemson will need to rely heavily on their run game to find success, but this strategy is far from guaranteed. Texas’ run defense, while not invincible, is still among the best in the country in terms of EPA per rush.
For Clemson to have a shot at victory, they will need to capitalize on turnovers, as their +16 margin has been a major factor in their success this season. Winning the turnover battle could give Clemson a chance to keep the game close, as Texas has shown it can struggle when opponents disrupt the rhythm of their offense. Clemson’s rushing attack must also be at its best to exploit the slight vulnerability in Texas’ run defense. If the Tigers can establish an early ground presence, it could open up opportunities in the passing game and keep Texas’ defense off balance.
On the other side of the ball, Clemson’s run defense remains a glaring concern. The Tigers have consistently struggled to contain opposing ground games, and Texas will undoubtedly look to exploit this weakness. The Longhorns’ physical rushing attack, combined with their disciplined offensive line, could spell trouble for Clemson if they cannot make adjustments. If Texas is able to establish the run early, they will control both the clock and the tempo, putting even more pressure on Clemson’s offense to deliver.
Clemson’s secondary, however, could serve as a bright spot and give the Tigers a fighting chance. By limiting Texas’ opportunities through the air and forcing the Longhorns to rely solely on their rushing attack, Clemson can attempt to contain the damage. The Tigers’ ability to suppress explosive plays in the passing game will be critical in preventing Texas from pulling away early.
Ultimately, this matchup will come down to which team can impose its strengths while minimizing its weaknesses. Texas enters the game as the more complete team, with an offense and defense that complement each other well. The Longhorns’ ability to dominate defensively, particularly against the pass, gives them a significant edge over Clemson. If Texas can execute their game plan and exploit Clemson’s run defense, they will be in a strong position to come away with the victory.
Clemson, meanwhile, will need to play a near-flawless game to pull off the upset. Winning the turnover battle, leaning on their rushing attack, and relying on their secondary to keep Texas in check will be key factors for the Tigers. While Clemson has shown resilience throughout the season, their inability to consistently stop the run raises questions about their ability to match up against a team as well-rounded as Texas.
For fans looking for in-depth coverage, NBC Sports has all the latest updates, including key insights, expert predictions, betting odds from BetMGM, and player news. Whether you’re tuning in for kickoff or searching for the best bets, NBC Sports’ team of analysts has you covered with comprehensive analysis and breakdowns of this highly anticipated matchup. Expect a hard-fought battle as Texas and Clemson take the field, with both teams eager to end their seasons on a high note.
