1. Patrick Mahomes to Throw Over 2.5 Touchdowns (Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Rationale:
Patrick Mahomes is a magician when it comes to postseason play, and the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense often runs through him, especially in high-stakes games. The Chiefs’ passing game is explosive, with weapons like Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Kadarius Toney. Against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average), Mahomes has a strong chance to reach or exceed three touchdowns.
Mahomes has a history of explosive performances in the playoffs. In his last three postseason games, he threw for at least three touchdowns each time. With the Chiefs’ ability to put points on the board quickly and the Jaguars’ offense being somewhat erratic (inconsistent but capable), Kansas City is likely to be aggressive early, putting Mahomes in a position to score multiple touchdowns.
Best Bet: Over 2.5 touchdowns.
2. Jalen Hurts to Rush for Over 49.5 Yards (Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants)
Rationale:
Jalen Hurts’ rushing ability is one of the defining features of the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense. While he is known for his arm, Hurts’ legs are just as dangerous, especially in crucial moments. The Giants’ defense has struggled against mobile quarterbacks this season, ranking 22nd in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. Hurts rushed for over 50 yards in five games this season, and his ability to escape pressure and pick up critical first downs with his legs makes him a threat on designed runs as well as scrambles.
The Eagles’ offensive scheme often incorporates read-option plays, which creates opportunities for Hurts to gain chunk yardage with his legs. Expect the Eagles to use Hurts’ dual-threat capability to move the ball against a Giants defense that will focus on stopping the Eagles’ powerful running back committee.
Best Bet: Over 49.5 rushing yards.
3. Dak Prescott to Throw Under 0.5 Interceptions (Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Rationale:
Dak Prescott has been a bit erratic this season with turnovers, but his recent form has been much more disciplined. In his last four games, Prescott has not thrown an interception, and he appears to have tightened up his decision-making in key moments. The San Francisco 49ers’ defense, while formidable, has not been as opportunistic as in years past. They are still excellent at pressuring quarterbacks, but Prescott’s decision-making has improved in recent weeks.
In a high-pressure playoff game, expect Prescott to manage the game effectively, especially with the Cowboys’ strong running game and the threat of play-action opening up passing lanes. The 49ers’ secondary can be vulnerable in certain matchups, and Prescott’s familiarity with his playmakers like CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz should help him avoid costly mistakes.
Best Bet: Under 0.5 interceptions.
4. Derrick Henry to Rush for Over 102.5 Yards (Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Rationale:
Derrick Henry is a postseason monster. The Tennessee Titans’ offense runs through him, and the team is built around Henry’s bruising running style. Despite some injury concerns throughout the season, Henry has shown that he’s still capable of dominating defenses when it matters most. The Bengals’ defense ranks 17th in rushing yards allowed per game, and Henry has a history of wearing down defenses in cold-weather games.
In the playoffs, when the weather is cold and the intensity ramps up, Henry tends to see heavy volume. Against a Bengals defense that may focus on slowing down Tennessee’s passing attack, expect Henry to be the focal point of the offense. Henry has rushed for over 102 yards in four of his last five playoff games, including his last two matchups against the Bengals.
Best Bet: Over 102.5 rushing yards.
5. Tyreek Hill to Have Over 6.5 Receptions (Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills)
Rationale:
Tyreek Hill is one of the most dangerous wide receivers in the NFL, and the Dolphins’ offense often runs through him. Despite facing tough defenses like the Buffalo Bills, Hill has been remarkably consistent this season. In his last eight games, Hill has had at least six receptions in six of them, and with Tua Tagovailoa’s return, Hill should get a significant number of targets. The Bills’ defense, while elite against the run, has shown vulnerability against top-tier wideouts.
In the postseason, Hill will likely be the primary target in the passing game, especially as the Dolphins may be forced to play catch-up against the high-scoring Bills. Given the volume of targets Hill typically receives and the Bills’ tendency to give up chunk plays through the air, this prop presents good value.
Best Bet: Over 6.5 receptions.
Total Bets:
1. Over 47.5 Total Points (Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
Rationale:
The Chiefs’ offense is one of the most potent in the NFL, led by Mahomes and a variety of dynamic weapons. The Jaguars, while not as explosive as Kansas City, have shown an ability to move the ball through the air with Trevor Lawrence and a solid group of receivers. With both teams capable of putting up points in a hurry, especially in shootout-style games, the over on this total looks promising.
Kansas City’s offense averages over 30 points per game, and Jacksonville has been surprisingly efficient this season, ranking in the top 15 in points per game. The Chiefs’ tendency to play fast-paced, high-scoring games combined with the Jaguars’ emerging offense sets up a game where the over is more likely than the under.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 total points.
2. Under 45.5 Total Points (Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers)
Rationale:
While both of these teams have explosive offenses, their defenses are elite, especially in the postseason. The 49ers’ defense is ranked No. 1 in total defense this season, and they are particularly strong against the run, which could force the Cowboys to pass more than they want to. The Cowboys’ defense is also highly capable, especially with Micah Parsons, who can pressure the quarterback and make life difficult for Brock Purdy.
This matchup is expected to be a defensive struggle, with both teams preferring to grind out long drives rather than engage in a high-scoring shootout. Additionally, given that both teams have strong offensive lines and run games, they may rely on time-consuming drives to keep the game close. The total points should be lower than many expect.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 total points.
