If the Cardinals continue on their present pace, we may see something more rare in St. Louis than an Aurora Borealis sighting: consecutive last place finishes.
And that could lead to another almost equally rare occurrence: a front office shakeup.
The Cardinals began play May 10 in fifth place in the five-team NL Central at 15-23. That’s eight games behind the division leading Milwaukee Brewers and a game and a half behind the division’s fourth place team, the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Their .395 winning percentage betters only the Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies in the National League. It’s only about a quarter of the way through the season, but that’s not too early to be concerned about a Cardinal team that finished last in the Central a year ago at 71-91 (.438 winning percentage).
The St. Louis Cardinals must entertain major changes (with clear successors waiting in wings)
That was the first time a Cardinal team had finished last in its division since 1990. The last time the Cardinals finished last in consecutive seasons was 1907-08.
Cardinal fans are known to be a patient group, but that’s primarily because their club has dominated the NL Central. Since the division was redrawn prior to 2013, St. Louis has won five of the 11 division titles and made seven of the division’s 16 postseason appearances.
The abruptness of the team’s turn negative is amply illustrated in the record book. Between 2013 and 2022, St. Louis teams compiled an 848-669 record, a .559 winning record. Since the start of the 2023 season, the club is 86-114, .430.
What’s transpired to permit the turn towards negativity? A few things possibly. The club’s stars aged. Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright retired, and Paul Goldschmidt moved into the senior portion of his 30s.
But the more systemic problem has related to the front office’s inability to patch the inevitable holes. That failure falls in the laps of long-time team President John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch.
Between 2007, when Mozeliak succeeded Walt Jocketty as general manager, and 2017, the Cardinal front office ruled the National League with ruthless efficiency. For that decade-long period, the average impact of front office moves on team fortunes – as measured by Wins Above Average – was close to +5.0 games per season.
