Duke Basketball: A Strong Start Amidst a Favorable Outlook for ACC Play
The Duke Blue Devils have started the season impressively with a 9-2 record, earning them the No. 5 spot in the latest Associated Press Poll. Under the guidance of head coach Jon Scheyer, Duke has navigated a challenging non-conference schedule that featured high-profile matchups against top-ranked teams, including No. 2 Auburn, No. 4 Kentucky, and No. 8 Kansas. These early tests provided valuable experience and established Duke as a formidable contender this season.
Transition to ACC Play
As the non-conference portion of the schedule winds down, Duke is poised to dive into Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) play. Their conference schedule kicks off this Saturday with a road game against Georgia Tech at noon ET, broadcast on the ACC Network. Although there’s one remaining non-conference matchup against Illinois on February 22, the focus will predominantly shift to ACC opponents for the remainder of the regular season.
The ACC, however, has been notably underwhelming this year. In the recent ACC/SEC Challenge, the Southeastern Conference (SEC) dominated with a 14-2 record, including 11 double-digit victories and five wins by 20 or more points. This performance underscores the disparity between the two conferences.
Currently, Duke and Clemson are the only ACC teams to have been ranked in the Associated Press Poll over the past two weeks. Duke, previously ranked No. 4, slid to No. 5 this week, while Clemson, initially No. 16, dropped to No. 25 after a loss to then-unranked Memphis (now No. 21). Adding to the ACC’s struggles, Clemson was defeated by unranked South Carolina in their most recent outing, likely removing them from the rankings altogether. This would leave Duke as the sole ranked representative of the conference.
Duke’s Odds of Dominating the ACC
Despite the ACC’s overall weakness, Duke remains a strong favorite to claim the regular-season conference title. According to BetMGM, the Blue Devils have odds of -200 to win the ACC, with Clemson trailing at +600. The disparity highlights Duke’s perceived dominance in a year where the ACC is arguably the weakest among the power conferences.
KenPom, a respected analytics platform, supports this sentiment, projecting Duke to finish the regular season undefeated in ACC play. The Blue Devils are currently favored in all their remaining games. Their most challenging matchup, according to KenPom’s projections, will be an away game against Clemson, where Duke is given a 63% chance to win. Even this margin is relatively favorable, showcasing Duke’s superiority within the conference.
In 11 of their 19 ACC games, Duke has a projected win probability of 90% or higher, effectively positioning those contests as near-certain victories. Moreover, the analytics reveal that Duke will face only one remaining top-25 KenPom opponent in Illinois. Within the ACC, Duke’s toughest competition includes just five games against top-50 KenPom opponents and 12 games against top-100 opponents. This analysis highlights the ease of Duke’s remaining schedule based on current metrics.
Pros and Cons of a Favorable Schedule
Duke’s relatively soft schedule presents both opportunities and challenges. On the positive side, the Blue Devils have a strong chance to accumulate wins and bolster their overall record. However, the lack of high-quality opponents limits opportunities to enhance their NCAA Tournament resume. Additionally, a single unexpected loss could be detrimental, as it would likely come against a sub-50 or even sub-75 KenPom team, potentially raising questions about Duke’s consistency.
It’s worth noting that the conference’s mediocrity isn’t due to poor planning by Jon Scheyer or Duke’s scheduling team; it simply reflects the ACC’s down year. While Duke can capitalize on the situation, they must remain vigilant to avoid potential pitfalls.
Can Duke Go Undefeated in the ACC?
The idea of Duke finishing the ACC season with an unblemished record is enticing but unlikely. Even with their superior talent, the Blue Devils’ roster leans heavily on freshmen, making them susceptible to occasional slip-ups. Youthful teams often experience moments of inconsistency, particularly in high-pressure situations.
One of the most anticipated matchups will be against North Carolina, a fierce rival. Although the Tar Heels have struggled to a 6-5 record and project as a mid-level seed in the NCAA Tournament, rivalry games often defy logic and rankings. History has shown that the Duke-North Carolina showdown rarely fails to deliver drama, adding an unpredictable element to the Blue Devils’ schedule.
Final Thoughts
Duke’s dominance in the early part of the season has positioned them as a clear favorite in the ACC. Their performance against elite non-conference opponents and favorable analytical projections signal a promising path ahead. However, the Blue Devils must navigate a unique set of challenges as they face an unusually weak conference slate. While their potential to win the ACC title seems highly probable, the unpredictability of college basketball ensures that every game will still demand focus and effort.
Whether or not Duke achieves an undefeated ACC season, their journey through the conference will be a critical chapter in their quest for postseason success. With the NCAA Tournament in sight, maintaining momentum and avoiding missteps will be paramount for a team with championship aspirations.
