Josh Heupel has nothing to lose, Ryan Day has the pressure: What’s on the line in CFP

KNOXVILLE, Tenn. — As the final seconds of Ohio State’s loss to Michigan ticked away in its regular-season finale, the discontent among the Buckeyes’ student section became unmistakably clear.

“F— Ryan Day! F— Ryan Day!” they chanted.

Meanwhile, nearly 400 miles away in Nashville, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel walked off the field amidst a jubilant crowd at Vanderbilt’s stadium. “Rocky Top” echoed through the air as Heupel embraced national champion baseball coach Tony Vitello. Athletic director Danny White stood nearby, beaming, ready to greet the victorious coach.

The stadium, awash in orange, was a testament to the Volunteers’ breakthrough moment.

Ohio State and Tennessee share identical records, separated by a mere one spot in the final College Football Playoff rankings. Yet as the two programs prepare to clash in the inaugural first round of the expanded CFP in Columbus, the stakes for their respective head coaches could not be more contrasting.

This divergence largely stems from the circumstances each coach inherited and what they’ve achieved since.

Heupel’s Reclamation Project

Heupel inherited a once-storied Tennessee program that had been mired in mediocrity for over a decade. Since 2004, the Volunteers had managed just one 10-win season and had cycled through five head coaches between 2008 and Heupel’s hiring in 2021.

When Jeremy Pruitt was dismissed in January 2021, it came after a prolonged internal investigation revealed multiple NCAA recruiting violations. The fallout was devastating: over 30 players transferred out, including blue-chip recruits like Henry To’o To’o, Wanya Morris, Eric Gray, and Quavaris Crouch. The roster was left in shambles.

Tennessee was coming off a dismal 3-7 season, shortened by the COVID-19 pandemic. To find a season worse than four games below .500, one would have to look back to 1906 under J.D. Depree. From 1980 to 2007, Tennessee endured just two losing seasons; from 2008 until Heupel’s arrival, they suffered through eight.

The program’s decline was stark.

Yet, in just two years, Heupel orchestrated a remarkable turnaround. By 2022, Tennessee reached No. 1 in the CFP poll, narrowly missing a Playoff berth due to a shocking loss at South Carolina. “Nobody was expecting that year in 2022, at least outside the building,” junior running back Dylan Sampson reflected. “Now, that’s the expectation.”

Fast forward to 2024, and the Volunteers find themselves in the expanded 12-team Playoff. Under Heupel, Tennessee has transformed from a program in freefall to one celebrating 30 wins in three seasons.

“We’ve continued to take steps,” Heupel said. “This is the next step we had to take as a program.”

The Weight of Expectation for Ryan Day

In contrast, expectation has been a defining characteristic of Ryan Day’s tenure at Ohio State. Taking over in 2019 after Urban Meyer’s retirement, Day inherited a juggernaut. Meyer’s Buckeyes had won the Big Ten in his final season, a feat Day replicated in his first two years as head coach.

However, Day’s tenure has been marred by his struggles against Michigan. After Ohio State dominated the rivalry with an eight-game winning streak from 2012 to 2019, Day’s Buckeyes lost in 2021, 2022, and again in 2023. The skid ended OSU’s stranglehold on Big Ten titles and cast a shadow over the program’s achievements.

Though the Buckeyes reached the CFP in 2022, they fell just short of toppling eventual national champion Georgia in the semifinals, missing a game-winning field goal by inches. That near-miss did little to alleviate the sting of consecutive losses to Michigan, a failure Day himself has described in deeply personal terms.

“It’s one of the worst things that’s happened to me in my life,” Day said before the 2023 Michigan game. “Other than losing my father and a few other things, like, it’s quite honestly, for my family, the worst thing that’s happened.”

The weight of those defeats loomed large during Ohio State’s stunning 13-10 loss to Michigan in November. A postgame brawl added to the drama, as players from both teams were pepper-sprayed by police after Michigan attempted to plant a flag at midfield in Ohio Stadium.

For Day, the expanded Playoff offers a shot at redemption. But a loss would only intensify the scrutiny surrounding his leadership. Despite assurances from athletic director Ross Bjork—who succeeded Gene Smith earlier this year—that Day’s job is secure, speculation about his future persists.

“The reason we had to say something after (Michigan) is, we’re still breathing, we’re still alive,” Bjork told the Columbus Dispatch earlier this month. “The book is not closed.”

Diverging Paths to the Playoff

This year, Ohio State’s roster was built with significant investment from boosters, including high-profile transfers like safety Caleb Downs from Alabama and running back Quinshon Judkins from Ole Miss. The team’s potential drew comparisons to some of the best Buckeye rosters in recent memory. Yet, the season has fallen short of those lofty expectations.

Entering Saturday’s matchup, the Buckeyes are favored by 7.5 points. But for Day, who boasts a 66-10 overall record and two Big Ten titles, the margin for error feels razor-thin.

Meanwhile, Heupel approaches the game with significantly less pressure. Tennessee’s fanbase remains enamored with their coach, who has revitalized a program many had written off. Even a loss would not diminish the goodwill Heupel has garnered during his tenure.

Familiar Territory for Heupel

Heupel’s current success at Tennessee mirrors his experience at UCF, where he followed Scott Frost after the Knights’ 13-0 season in 2017. Despite initial skepticism, Heupel won 12 games in his first year and 10 in his second. However, a disappointing six-win season in 2020 led to questions about his ability to sustain success.

When White, who had recently been hired as Tennessee’s athletic director, chose Heupel to lead the Volunteers, the decision surprised both fanbases. Yet, Heupel has thrived in Knoxville, proving himself to be more than a mere caretaker. Instead, he has emerged as a transformative figure, steering Tennessee to heights it hadn’t reached in years.

The Crossroads

Saturday’s showdown represents more than just a CFP matchup; it’s a referendum on the trajectories of two programs and the coaches who lead them. For Heupel, the game is an opportunity to solidify his legacy as the architect of Tennessee’s resurgence. For Day, it’s a chance to quell the growing discontent among Buckeye fans and prove he can guide Ohio State back to national prominence.

The stakes are clear. A win for Heupel would further validate Tennessee’s place among college football’s elite. A loss for Day could fuel louder calls for change in Columbus, even with his impressive track record.

Expectation, it seems, will always cast a long shadow.