The days of debating which teams belong in the College Football Playoff are over. There’s no more room for speculation or hypotheticals, no matter how well-intentioned. It’s time to settle the matter on the field. With the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff scheduled this weekend, the competition will unfold at campus sites, bringing an entirely new dynamic to the postseason. Home games are now a part of the playoff picture for the first time, which promises an electric atmosphere for fans and a fresh set of challenges for each team involved.
Unlike the neutral-site venues of past playoffs, the games will now be played at the teams’ home stadiums. This shift introduces the possibility of adverse weather conditions, as many of the matchups are set to take place in freezing temperatures, with snow also potentially in the forecast. The presence of partisan crowds at each stadium will add a layer of intensity and unpredictability to the proceedings. This weekend’s games could be some of the most thrilling yet, thanks to the combination of home-field advantage, the elements, and the raw energy of playoff football.
Let’s take a look at a few matchups, along with predictions and insights for each game.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
If someone had predicted a College Football Playoff game between Notre Dame and Indiana a few years ago, it might have been met with disbelief. Indiana’s inclusion in the playoff, especially after a season that included notable setbacks, is still a bit surprising. Notre Dame, too, has had its own struggles, including an upset loss at home to Northern Illinois, but somehow, they find themselves hosting a playoff game. The matchup, dubbed the “Winner Takes Indiana” battle, is one of the more unexpected showdowns of the first round.
Much has been made of Indiana’s strength of schedule this season, and it’s a valid point to consider. However, Notre Dame’s schedule wasn’t much tougher. According to Sagarin ratings, Indiana played the 74th toughest schedule, while Notre Dame’s was ranked 64th. The difference is small, yet it could be significant when it comes to performance on the field. Indiana’s offensive struggles against top-tier defenses like Michigan and Ohio State are concerning, especially considering how impressive Notre Dame’s defense is. Against Michigan and Ohio State, Indiana’s offense averaged just 1.52 points per possession and had a success rate of 39.8%. In comparison, against all other teams, those numbers were significantly higher, but this game will be a much tougher challenge.
While Indiana’s defense can hold its own, they’ll need to force turnovers and find a way to overcome their offensive limitations if they hope to keep up with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish’s defense will make life difficult for the Hoosiers, especially on the offensive side. Given that Notre Dame will be playing at home and their defense has proven to be formidable, they should emerge victorious. Pick: Notre Dame -7 (-110)
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State
This game could turn into one of the most exciting and high-scoring contests of the weekend. With temperatures expected to be in the low 30s, and snow possibly falling, weather could play a role in how the game unfolds. Still, both teams bring explosive offensive weapons, and the matchup has all the makings of a shootout.
Penn State’s offense has been one of the best in the country, particularly when it comes to explosive plays. With a 16.1% explosive play rate, the Nittany Lions rank 5th nationally. Tight end Tyler Warren is a matchup nightmare that could give SMU’s defense plenty of trouble. While backup quarterback Beau Pribula’s potential absence due to his departure from the team is concerning, Penn State’s offense should still be effective. SMU’s defense has shown improvement, but it struggled against Clemson’s powerful offense in the ACC Championship Game, and Penn State’s offensive line could prove to be even more challenging.
Defensively, Penn State has been solid, but they have been known to give up big plays. This could give SMU opportunities to strike and get into scoring positions. A key player in this game will be SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, who brings a unique skill set. His mobility and ability to extend plays with his legs make him a significant threat to Penn State’s defense. Despite some concerns, Penn State’s overall talent and depth should lead them to victory in this matchup. However, don’t be surprised if the game ends up being a high-scoring affair. Pick: Over 53.5 (-114)
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
The matchup between Clemson and Texas is one of the hardest to call. Both teams have had their fair share of ups and downs this season, and it’s difficult to predict which version of these teams will show up for this game. It could go in any direction—Texas could run away with it, or Clemson could pull off an upset.
Clemson has been inconsistent throughout the season, but they have a solid track record of showing up in big games. Texas, on the other hand, has also struggled with consistency, and it’s unclear which Texas team will take the field. While Texas has the higher ranking, Clemson’s defense could pose problems for the Longhorns. This game could very well be decided by which team makes fewer mistakes and executes better on both sides of the ball.
In this matchup, I lean toward Clemson keeping the game closer than expected, especially with the unpredictability of both teams. Texas has been dominant at times, but they’ve also shown vulnerability. I expect this to be one of the most closely contested games of the first round, and while the outcome is uncertain, I would bet on Clemson covering the spread. Pick: Clemson +7 (-110)
