To determine who would receive the first seed in the NFC if both the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles win their next three games, we need to analyze a number of factors including their current records, the strength of their remaining schedules, and how the NFC playoff seeding process works. The NFL playoff seeding system, particularly in the NFC, is based on a series of tiebreakers in the event that two or more teams have identical records.
Current Standings and Records
As of the most recent standings at the time of writing, both the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles are competitive teams, but there are notable differences between their current situations.
Detroit Lions (2024 season, at the time of writing)
- Record (as of Week 15): 10-3
- Position in NFC Playoff Race: First place in the NFC North, with a strong lead over division rivals.
- Remaining Games (Assumed): The Lions’ remaining opponents are challenging but manageable. Their schedule includes a mix of teams with playoff aspirations and non-playoff teams, providing a chance to secure a strong finish to the season.
Philadelphia Eagles (2024 season, at the time of writing)
- Record (as of Week 15): 11-2
- Position in NFC Playoff Race: First place in the NFC East, with a slim lead over other top contenders in the NFC, including the Lions.
- Remaining Games (Assumed): The Eagles’ remaining games also feature tough opponents, including several NFC contenders. Their schedule is slightly more difficult due to the competitiveness of the NFC East.
Understanding the NFC Playoff Seeding Process
The NFC playoff seeding is determined first by a team’s win-loss record. In the case of a tie in records at the end of the regular season, the NFL uses the following tiebreakers to determine the final seeding:
- Head-to-Head Record: If two teams have the same record, the team that has won the most games between the two during the regular season gets the higher seed.
- Division Winner vs. Wild Card: Division winners automatically rank ahead of wild-card teams, even if their records are worse.
- Conference Record: If two teams from the same division have the same record but one has a better record in conference play, that team gets the higher seed.
- Strength of Victory (SOV): This measures how well a team’s opponents have done over the course of the season. The higher the SOV, the higher the seed.
- Other tiebreakers (Common Games, Strength of Schedule, etc.): If necessary, other criteria like strength of schedule or record against common opponents are used.
Hypothetical Scenario: Both Teams Win Their Next Three Games
For this analysis, let’s assume that both the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles win their next three games. This will put both teams in a position where they finish the regular season with identical 13-3 records.
Detroit Lions’ Potential Path:
- Record After 3 Wins: 13-3
- Remaining Games (Assumed): The Lions could win against teams such as the Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, and a possible playoff team from another division or a team on the bubble. The important factor here is that the Lions would finish their regular season strong, potentially locking up the NFC North division title.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Potential Path:
- Record After 3 Wins: 14-2
- Remaining Games (Assumed): The Eagles, in this hypothetical scenario, could secure victories against tough opponents like the Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks, or any other teams remaining in their schedule. The Eagles’ strong season so far, paired with their competitive NFC East games, makes a 14-2 finish highly plausible.
Comparing Strength of Schedules
While both teams are set to finish with strong records, the next step is to analyze their strength of schedule, which may play a critical role in the final NFC standings.
Detroit Lions’ Strength of Schedule
The Lions have a very strong 2024 season, but their schedule has been more balanced in terms of opponents compared to the Eagles. Their games against the NFC North rivals (Packers, Bears, and Vikings) have been solid, but they will have some non-division games that could be relatively easier. If the Lions win their remaining games, they could be facing some teams with losing records, which may impact their final standing.
Philadelphia Eagles’ Strength of Schedule
On the other hand, the Eagles have played in the highly competitive NFC East division. They’ve faced tough teams like the Cowboys, Giants, and Washington Commanders. Their remaining schedule features a combination of division rivals and teams from other competitive NFC divisions, making the Eagles’ remaining stretch more difficult. If they manage to win out, it could indicate a stronger strength of schedule, and the NFL’s tiebreaker system would likely favor them.
Head-to-Head Record (If Relevant)
If the Lions and Eagles have played each other during the regular season, the head-to-head result would be critical. If one team won the game, that team would hold the tiebreaker. In the case that the two teams did not face each other or split their matchups, the next tiebreaker would come into play.
Division Titles and Other Tiebreakers
Both teams have a chance to win their respective divisions, which automatically secures them higher seeding than wild card teams. As we’ve established, the Lions lead the NFC North and the Eagles are at the top of the NFC East.
- Division Winner Priority: The Eagles, with a slightly better record (13-3 vs. 14-2 in our scenario), would likely secure the NFC East title and a higher seed in the NFC bracket, regardless of what the Lions do in the NFC North. This is because division champions always rank higher than wild card teams in playoff seeding, even if their records are worse.
Potential Outcome: The First Seed in the NFC
Considering the win-loss record and the division standings, the Eagles are likely to finish the season with a higher record (14-2 compared to 13-3), which would give them the NFC’s first seed. Even if the Lions win their final three games and finish with an excellent 13-3 record, the Eagles’ better overall record and possibly tougher strength of schedule would give them the edge in securing the top seed.
The Lions could still secure a high seed in the NFC, likely the second seed, depending on the final tiebreakers and conference record, but it seems unlikely that they would leapfrog the Eagles for the top spot without some form of an unexpected collapse from Philadelphia.
