The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl on January 2, 2025, between the Duke Blue Devils and the Ole Miss Rebels may not seem like a headline matchup, especially when you consider the major bowl games taking place around New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. However, despite being overlooked in favor of the more prominent games, this game presents an intriguing matchup between two 9-3 teams, each with a lot to play for. One of them will finish the season with a 10-win record, which is significant for both programs.
The Rebels, coached by Lane Kiffin, come into the game as heavy favorites, initially opening as 14-point favorites. However, the line has grown to 17.5 points as news broke that Duke would be missing some key players. Despite Duke’s solid regular season, several injuries and absences on their roster have caused some doubt surrounding their ability to compete with Ole Miss on New Year’s Day.
Duke’s injuries, specifically at the quarterback and running back positions, have made them an underdog in this matchup. Maalik Murphy, Duke’s starting quarterback for most of the season, transferred to Oregon State ahead of the bowl game. Additionally, Star Thomas, the Blue Devils’ starting running back, will not be available for the game. These losses are significant, especially when you consider the roles these players had in Duke’s offensive production.
The absence of Murphy leaves the Blue Devils with Henry Belin IV, who will be making his first start for Duke in this bowl game. Although Belin has limited experience, having completed just one pass attempt all season for seven yards, his mobility could make him a wildcard for Duke’s offense. Belin has shown some ability to contribute on the ground, with five carries for 23 yards earlier in the season. However, his inexperience and the pressure he will face from Ole Miss’s defense are likely to be major factors in determining the outcome of this game. Belin is stepping into a major role, and it’s uncertain whether he can replicate Murphy’s production, especially with Ole Miss’s aggressive pass rush.
On the other side, Ole Miss is coming into this game relatively healthy and with a clear talent advantage. They are missing few key players, and their roster is filled with talent that has been proven throughout the season. One area where the Rebels have dominated this year is on the defensive side of the ball. Ole Miss has been outstanding in rushing the quarterback, leading the nation with 52 sacks. Their ability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks will be a key factor in this matchup, and Belin’s lack of experience could make him an easy target for the Rebels’ defense.
Led by standout defensive players like Jared Ivey and DeSanto Rollins, the Ole Miss defense has been relentless. They are capable of turning games with their pass rush, and against a backup quarterback in Belin, the Rebels will likely pressure him heavily and try to force him into mistakes. Duke’s offensive line, which has been solid this season, may struggle to contain the pass rush that Ole Miss brings to the table.
The Rebels’ offense, meanwhile, has been a consistent force throughout the 2024 season. Jaxson Dart, the Ole Miss quarterback, has been solid under center, balancing a strong passing game with the ability to make plays with his legs. His leadership has been crucial to Ole Miss’s success. Dart has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns this season, and he has a strong supporting cast, including Quinshon Judkins, one of the nation’s top running backs. Judkins has been a workhorse for Ole Miss, carrying the ball for over 1,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. His ability to establish the run will be crucial in helping the Rebels control the game’s tempo.
In the receiving game, Ole Miss has several playmakers, including Tre Harris and Dayton Wade, who can stretch the field and provide Dart with reliable targets down the field. These weapons give Ole Miss a diverse offensive attack that will challenge Duke’s defense, even though the Blue Devils have been solid on that side of the ball throughout the year.
Duke’s defense, while effective, has not faced an offense of Ole Miss’s caliber all season. The Blue Devils’ defensive line, led by DeWayne Carter and Jamal Banks, is solid but may struggle to match the speed and physicality of Ole Miss’s offensive line. Ole Miss has been able to control games on the ground, which will likely be a key strategy in this bowl game. If the Rebels can establish the run early with Judkins and keep the Blue Devils’ defense on its heels, they could set up play-action opportunities for Dart to exploit Duke’s secondary.
One of the key challenges for Duke in this game will be stopping the run. Ole Miss’s offense is versatile, and while their passing game is effective, their ground attack is what has powered them all season. If Duke is unable to stop Judkins and the Rebels’ running game, it will put too much pressure on Belin to make plays through the air.
The fact that Ole Miss is relatively healthy, compared to the injuries that Duke is dealing with, puts the Rebels at a significant advantage in this matchup. Duke’s defense, while solid, will face its toughest challenge of the season in slowing down Ole Miss’s potent offense. The Blue Devils’ offense, led by Belin, will struggle against the Rebels’ pass rush, and without their starting quarterback and running back, it’s hard to see how Duke can keep up with Ole Miss in this game.
Prediction
While Duke has had a solid season, the loss of key players and the Rebels’ talent advantage will likely prove too much for them to overcome. Ole Miss’s offense will be too explosive, and their defense will dominate the inexperienced Belin. This should result in a comfortable victory for Ole Miss, who will finish the season with a 10-win record.
Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 34, Duke 14
Pick Against the Spread: Ole Miss (-17.5)
Pick Over/Under: Under (51.5)
In conclusion, while the matchup may not have the same hype as other New Year’s bowl games, the Gator Bowl will provide a showcase of Ole Miss’s offensive firepower and defensive dominance. Duke will put up a fight but will struggle to keep pace with the Rebels.
