The Baltimore Orioles have experienced a remarkable resurgence in recent seasons, but as the offseason unfolds, they find themselves facing critical decisions that could shape their future. While the team has positioned itself as a contender, with an exciting blend of emerging talent and a strong organizational foundation, there are a series of tough choices ahead. Among them is the looming question of how to handle their pitching staff, particularly in light of the potential acquisition of Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers, a move that could be a game-changer for their rotation. This offseason will be pivotal in determining whether the Orioles can maintain their competitive edge or whether they will fall short due to missteps in addressing these key decisions.
1. The Corbin Burnes Decision: A Trade That Could Define the Offseason
Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, is one of the top pitching targets in this offseason’s trade market. The Brewers have publicly indicated that they may be open to moving Burnes due to their ongoing payroll constraints and the fact that Burnes, entering his final year of arbitration, is unlikely to be retained long-term in Milwaukee. For a team like the Orioles, who have a deep farm system and a promising but still unproven pitching staff, Burnes could provide the veteran presence and high-end performance needed to elevate their rotation to true contender status.
The Orioles have long been focused on building a team capable of sustained success, and adding Burnes would accelerate that process. However, the move would require the front office to make tough decisions in terms of both personnel and resources. The price for a pitcher of Burnes’ caliber is likely to be high, and the Orioles will have to balance the immediate benefits of acquiring a top-tier arm with the long-term health of their farm system.
The Impact of Corbin Burnes on the Orioles’ Rotation
Burnes would immediately slot into the front of the Orioles’ rotation, where he could potentially serve as the ace the team has lacked in recent years. Despite a somewhat underwhelming 2023 season by his standards, Burnes still posted strong underlying numbers, including a 3.39 ERA, a 10.5 K/9, and a solid 1.04 WHIP. His fastball, slider, and curveball make him a dynamic force on the mound, and his ability to induce swings and misses could significantly bolster a Baltimore rotation that lacks a true strikeout ace.
Adding Burnes would also allow the Orioles to push some of their younger arms down the pecking order, providing them with more time to develop without being thrust into the pressure of a postseason push. For example, Grayson Rodriguez, the team’s highly-touted pitching prospect, could benefit from not being expected to carry the rotation early in his career, with Burnes providing leadership and stability.
However, this scenario presents several key questions. Who will the Orioles have to part with in a trade for Burnes? The team’s farm system is stocked with talent, but a trade for Burnes will likely cost them one or more of their top prospects. Could that include someone like Jackson Holliday, the top overall prospect in baseball, or other key assets that could be used to bolster other areas of need?
2. Balancing the Future with the Present: The Orioles’ Farm System
The Orioles’ front office, led by general manager Mike Elias, has invested heavily in their farm system in recent years. With players like Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez already making an impact at the big league level, the Orioles are poised to have a sustained period of competitive baseball. Yet the team now finds itself at a crossroads: should they continue to invest in their young talent and the future, or should they capitalize on their current window of contention and take on the risk of parting with top prospects to bring in established talent?
Trading top prospects is always a gamble, but the Orioles are likely to face a decision this offseason. If they want to acquire Burnes, they may need to trade from their farm system, which is one of the deepest in all of Major League Baseball. While it’s clear that the Orioles’ front office is committed to winning now, they must be careful not to deplete their prospect pool and hinder their long-term future in the process.
One of the key decisions here is whether to maintain depth in the farm system or to move aggressively and go all-in for the short-term window. While Burnes could certainly help the team compete in the near future, the front office will have to be cautious about mortgaging too much of their future.
3. The Starting Pitching Market: More Than Just Corbin Burnes
While Burnes is one of the most high-profile trade candidates, the Orioles could also explore other options on the free agent market or in trade for additional pitching depth. The front office’s goal should be to improve the starting rotation, but they need to consider the market’s realities. Burnes is a potential ace, but he’s not the only option.
The Orioles could explore free-agent pitchers like Sonny Gray, who had a solid 2023 campaign with the Minnesota Twins, or they could take a look at younger, high-upside arms on the trade market. The team’s focus will likely be on finding a consistent, innings-eating starter who can complement their offense and provide depth to the pitching staff.
Beyond the Corbin Burnes scenario, the team should also be evaluating their current rotation. With ace Kyle Gibson entering the final year of his contract, the team will need to assess whether to extend him or look elsewhere for a longer-term solution. Additionally, prospects like Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish are expected to continue developing, but the Orioles may not want to rely too heavily on them during the early stages of their careers.
The need for starting pitching is undeniable, but the front office needs to be strategic. Their focus should be on bringing in an ace or a strong No. 2 starter who can pitch deep into games, but they’ll need to be smart with their financial resources. Will they be able to sign a free agent and make a trade for Burnes, or will they have to settle for one big acquisition?
4. The Long-Term Vision: Building a Sustainable Contender
Beyond the immediate decisions regarding Burnes and the pitching staff, the Orioles must consider how they want to build a sustainable contender. The team is currently in an enviable position, with a promising core of young hitters, including Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Cedric Mullins, and an emerging bullpen that could become one of the league’s best in the coming years. However, sustaining that success will require a steady mix of internal development and strategic acquisitions in key areas, particularly pitching.
The Burnes decision is part of a larger puzzle. If the Orioles acquire Burnes, they should be prepared for the possibility that he may not be a long-term piece of the puzzle. Burnes will be a free agent after the 2024 season, so his presence on the team may be a one-year rental unless they can negotiate an extension. This fact only underscores the importance of continuing to develop internal talent while not being overly reliant on external acquisitions for long-term success.
In the longer term, the Orioles must look to build a sustainable system that doesn’t just rely on high-profile trades and free-agent signings. Developing pitchers internally should continue to be a priority. The Orioles have seen great success with their farm system, and they need to keep that pipeline flowing with pitchers who can eventually contribute to the big league club. Their development of pitchers like Rodriguez and D.L. Hall is promising, and the Orioles should continue to focus on cultivating homegrown talent as they transition to perennial contenders.
