The Washington Commanders and the Dallas Cowboys will face off in an intriguing Week 18 matchup on Sunday, January 5 at the Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium. With the NFL playoff picture already taking shape, this game holds significant stakes, particularly for the Commanders, who are still in the hunt for playoff positioning. While the Cowboys have already been eliminated from postseason contention, they are looking to finish the season on a strong note and play spoiler to their NFC East rivals.
This matchup is expected to be tightly contested, but most analysts and sportsbooks favor the Commanders in this game, with Washington coming in as a 3-point favorite. In this article, we’ll explore the odds, predictions, and what each team needs to do to claim victory on Sunday.
Washington Commanders’ Current Form and Playoff Implications
The Washington Commanders have clinched a playoff spot after securing their fourth straight win in Week 17, a crucial victory that puts them firmly in the playoff picture. Despite being somewhat under the radar for much of the season, Washington has rallied late, thanks in part to their rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has been stellar over the last few games.
Daniels, a highly regarded first-year quarterback, has brought new life to Washington’s offense, showing poise and confidence in critical moments. He has been especially effective in the passing game, finishing the regular season with 13 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions, and an impressive 109.8 QB rating. His 72.06% completion rate shows his ability to keep the offense moving and put the ball in the right places at the right times.
For Washington, this game is far from meaningless, as they are still fighting for playoff seeding in the NFC. With a win against the Cowboys, they could secure the No. 6 seed, avoiding a matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles and instead facing off against a less daunting opponent like the Los Angeles Rams or Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These factors make this game crucial for Washington’s playoff run, as they will want to avoid facing the top-tier teams in the NFC as long as possible.
Dallas Cowboys’ Current State
On the other hand, the Dallas Cowboys come into this game already eliminated from playoff contention. After a strong midseason run, including several notable wins, Dallas fell short of the postseason, and their focus now shifts to evaluating young players and finishing the season on a positive note. While their playoff hopes are dashed, the Cowboys have shown flashes of potential, and they will want to end the year with a victory, especially in a divisional matchup against a rival.
In the absence of playoff pressure, Dallas could choose to experiment with their lineup, including giving backup quarterback Trey Lance more playing time in a meaningful game. Lance, who has been with the Cowboys for only a short period since being traded from the San Francisco 49ers, has yet to see substantial action, making Week 18 a potential opportunity to assess his progress. While Dak Prescott remains the starting quarterback, seeing Lance on the field could provide important insight into the team’s future quarterback situation.
As for the rest of the roster, the Cowboys will look to finish strong and try to play spoiler for the Commanders. They may also look at ways to shore up some weaknesses that have been apparent throughout the season, including improving their offensive consistency and defending against opposing quarterbacks like Daniels, who has been playing at a high level.
Key Matchups to Watch
Several key matchups will determine the outcome of this game:
- Commanders’ Passing Attack vs. Cowboys’ Pass Defense: One of the most compelling matchups will be the duel between the Commanders’ passing game, led by Jayden Daniels, and the Cowboys’ pass defense. Washington’s passing attack has been solid throughout the season, and Daniels has played well as a rookie, but the Cowboys’ defense has shown glimpses of being able to lock down opposing passers. The Cowboys’ pass defense ranks 22nd in the NFL, giving up an average of 223.7 yards per game, so Daniels will look to exploit that weakness.
- Cowboys’ Running Game vs. Commanders’ Defense: The Cowboys’ run game has struggled throughout the season, ranking 28th in the NFL, averaging just 95.2 yards per game. Dallas will need to find ways to generate offense on the ground, especially if Cooper Rush or Trey Lance are under center, as the run game could take pressure off their passing attack. However, Washington has a solid defense, particularly against the run, ranking 19th in rushing yards allowed per game with 102.9 yards. This could make it difficult for the Cowboys to establish a balanced attack.
- Cowboys’ Defensive Line vs. Commanders’ Offensive Line: On the other side of the ball, Washington’s offensive line will need to contain the Cowboys’ defensive line, which is one of the more disruptive units in the league. If Micah Parsons and the Cowboys’ front seven can put pressure on Daniels, it could force him into mistakes or disrupt his timing. Washington’s ability to protect their rookie quarterback and keep him upright will be crucial to their chances of success.
- Turnovers: Turnovers are always critical in any game, but especially in a matchup like this, where both teams are fighting for different reasons. The Cowboys have struggled with turnovers throughout the season, and if they continue that trend, it could give Washington an edge in field position and scoring opportunities. Washington, on the other hand, will want to avoid making costly mistakes as they look to secure a playoff spot and potentially improve their seeding.
Predictions and Odds
- BetMGM Sportsbook has Washington as a 3-point favorite, with a moneyline of -160 for the Commanders and +135 for the Cowboys. This suggests that Washington is the favorite, but Dallas is still considered to be a dangerous team that could pull off an upset.
- Sports Betting Dime predicts a commanding win for Washington, with a final score of 33.2 to 18.7. This prediction is based on a combination of factors, including the strong play of Jayden Daniels and the Cowboys’ issues with consistency on both sides of the ball.
- ESPN gives Washington a 65.9% chance to win the game, with Dallas at 33.9%. The remaining percentage accounts for the possibility of a tie, though that seems unlikely given the stakes for both teams.
- Sportsnaut also predicts a 34-24 win for Washington, emphasizing Daniels’ strong performance down the stretch and his potential to lead the Commanders to a playoff berth with a victory.
Final Thoughts
While Dallas has the potential to be a dangerous opponent, particularly with the chance to spoil Washington’s playoff seeding, it is difficult to overlook the momentum and high level of play that the Commanders have shown, especially with Jayden Daniels at quarterback. With a playoff spot secured, Washington has a lot to play for in terms of improving their seeding and avoiding a tougher postseason matchup.
Dallas, meanwhile, will likely use this game to evaluate their younger players and finish the season strong, but without a playoff berth on the line, their motivation may not match that of Washington’s. While an upset is always possible in the NFL, the Commanders appear to have the edge in this Week 18 matchup, and they should be able to secure the win and finish the regular season on a high note.
