The College Football Playoff (CFP) has become a major aspect of college football since its introduction in the 2014 season. Before the CFP, the national champion was determined by polls and the BCS system, which had its fair share of controversies. The CFP, however, allows for a more democratic and clear-cut way of determining the national champion, with the top four teams based on regular-season performance being selected to compete in two semifinal games, which are hosted at rotating bowl games. These teams then have the chance to compete for the national championship in a final game.
As the CFP system evolves, so too do the odds of various teams making it to the final and winning the championship. Betting odds, adjusted regularly throughout the season, are shaped by various factors such as a team’s performance, injuries, coaching decisions, and other dynamics such as public perception and historical patterns. Ohio State, one of the premier programs in college football, is often considered one of the favorites, but the odds for any team to win a national title can shift dramatically during the course of a season.
Overview of the College Football Playoff System
The CFP format is straightforward in principle, though highly competitive. Each season, a committee made up of athletic directors, former coaches, and sports media experts ranks the top 25 teams in the country. The four highest-ranked teams, based on this selection, then advance to the CFP. These teams are placed into two semifinal matchups, which are held at major bowl games—either the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl, or Fiesta Bowl.
The winners of the semifinals then face off in the national championship game to determine the NCAA Division I FBS football champion. This system replaced the BCS, which selected teams for a national championship based on a combination of polls and computer rankings. While the BCS still had its moments of controversy, the CFP has generally provided a more comprehensive and transparent way of selecting and crowning a champion.
Adjusting Championship Odds
Odds of a team winning the national title are usually calculated based on both objective factors (team performance) and subjective ones (such as the public’s perception of a team’s strength). Initially, these odds are set based on the previous season’s performance, recruitment cycles, player returns, and coaching changes. As the season progresses, however, the odds fluctuate as teams perform and adjust to injuries, suspensions, or other unforeseen circumstances.
For teams like Ohio State, which are perennially near the top of the rankings, odds can shift significantly from the preseason to the postseason depending on how they perform in their conference and regular season games.
Some of the main factors that can affect a team’s odds of winning the national championship include:
- Regular Season Performance: Teams with undefeated records or only a single loss in the regular season typically have favorable odds to make it to the CFP and beyond. For example, Ohio State is often a favorite due to its consistent ability to win the Big Ten and maintain a strong win-loss record.
- Strength of Schedule: A team’s strength of schedule plays a huge role in determining its odds. Teams that face tougher opponents often earn higher rankings, which in turn boosts their national championship odds. Ohio State, as a Big Ten powerhouse, faces tough competition in the conference, which is generally regarded as one of the top football conferences in the country.
- Player Injuries: Injuries to key players, especially quarterbacks or defensive stars, can drastically affect a team’s chances of making a deep playoff run. If a star player is lost for the season or is struggling, oddsmakers will adjust the team’s chances accordingly. For example, if Ohio State’s quarterback were injured in the middle of the season, their championship odds would likely decrease significantly.
- Coaching Changes and Decisions: Coaching plays a key role in any successful football program. For teams with legendary coaches or consistent leadership, such as Ohio State under Ryan Day, the odds might stay favorable even if the team has a rough patch during the season. However, if there are concerns about a coach’s future or their performance, odds may adjust accordingly.
- Strength of Other Teams: The competition matters. A program like Ohio State may look strong, but if other powerhouse teams like Alabama, Georgia, or Michigan perform at an elite level, Ohio State’s chances may be viewed more skeptically. The odds are influenced not only by Ohio State’s performance but also by how other teams are faring in the playoff hunt.
Ohio State’s Path and Adjustments to Odds
Ohio State’s consistent ability to make it to the College Football Playoff in the last decade makes them a fixture in the conversation when it comes to the national title race. Historically, they’ve been one of the most successful programs in the playoff era, earning multiple berths and even winning the championship in the 2014 season.
However, even Ohio State’s path to the national title isn’t free from obstacles. Their odds of winning the national championship can fluctuate based on several factors:
- Intra-Conference Rivalries: The Big Ten conference features several programs with elite-level talent, including Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin. Michigan, in particular, has grown into a major rival to Ohio State in recent years, making the regular season matchup between the two teams crucial. A loss to a conference rival could diminish Ohio State’s chances and cause a sharp adjustment to their odds.
- Emerging Teams: The college football landscape is always shifting, with programs like Georgia, Alabama, and Clemson asserting their dominance in recent seasons. If one of these teams appears to be performing at an even higher level than expected, Ohio State’s chances may be reduced as oddsmakers focus on the emerging competition.
- Playoff Performance: Once in the College Football Playoff, Ohio State’s odds of winning the national championship will be dependent on how they perform in their semifinal matchup. A poor performance in a playoff game can lead to quick adjustments in their odds, especially if the team loses in a lopsided fashion.
Other Semifinalists and Their Adjustments
While Ohio State is a key player in the race for the national championship, it’s important to look at the other semifinalists and how their odds of winning the national title are adjusted. For example, teams like Alabama, Georgia, and Michigan have consistently been at the top of the rankings in recent years.
- Alabama: Under coach Nick Saban, Alabama is always a favorite to win the national championship. Even if they suffer a setback during the regular season, their odds often remain favorable due to their deep talent pool and ability to perform in big games. Alabama’s odds are generally stable, but can fluctuate if they face a high-caliber opponent in the playoff.
- Georgia: The Bulldogs have emerged as one of the premier programs in college football under Kirby Smart. Their strong recruiting and elite-level defense have made them perennial contenders. If Georgia is a semifinalist, their odds are likely to be among the best, and they often enter the playoff as one of the top teams.
- Michigan: Michigan, under coach Jim Harbaugh, has experienced a resurgence in recent seasons. The rivalry game between Ohio State and Michigan has become one of the most exciting matchups in college football, and depending on the outcome of that game, Michigan’s odds could see a sharp rise or fall.
