When company comes over or when I’m out with friends, my wife often reminds me of the “30% rule,” a family bylaw designed to temper my sometimes over-the-top personality. Essentially, it aims to dial me back by nearly one-third, ensuring I don’t overwhelm people with my exuberance.
At some point during the evening, my wife gives me “the look,” signaling it’s time to tone things down a notch. It’s not that I’m changing who I am—I’m still myself—but I’ve learned that maintaining a 100% version of me in social situations is a recipe for crashing and burning in a flurry of dad jokes, loud laughter, and spilled drinks. As she points out, I can still be effective and engaging at 70%, even if I’d rather go all-in with 100%. In the end, it’s a delicate balance.
What does all this have to do with the Cotton Bowl, where No. 6 Ohio State faces off against No. 3 Texas on Friday? Well, this: The Buckeyes have played close to 100% in their last two playoff games—a 42-17 dismantling of Tennessee and a 41-21 blowout over Oregon. If you believe, as I do, that Ohio State cannot possibly perform better than it did in those games, the question now becomes: at what percentage can the Buckeyes still be Ohio State and topple the Longhorns? I’m thinking 90% gets it done easily. Even 80% should work. But any lower, and it could turn into a dogfight at AT&T Stadium.
Let’s break this down in terms of percentages.
Ohio State’s Best Playoff Performance: 100% Maxed Out
The first half of the Oregon game stands as the best combination of offensive and defensive football I’ve seen Ohio State play in 30 years. The Buckeyes took a commanding 34-0 lead over the Ducks before allowing a late touchdown and two-point conversion right before halftime. Oregon, ranked No. 1 going into the Rose Bowl, was supposed to be Ohio State’s biggest test of the season, but the Buckeyes made it look easy. By the time the first half ended, the Ducks had been thoroughly outclassed in every phase of the game.
It was the perfect storm of offense and defense—Cade Klubnik was throwing darts to his wide receivers, and the defense was swarming Oregon’s offense, stifling any chance of a rhythm. The Buckeyes’ dominance didn’t let up in the second half either, as they coasted to a 41-21 victory. That performance had the hallmarks of a championship-caliber team. If Ohio State could play like that every week, they’d be near unstoppable. But that level of intensity and execution is hard to sustain, especially as the stakes rise and the competition stiffens.
Ohio State’s Margin for Error: 90% and 80%
The problem for the Buckeyes, and the reason I think they need to throttle down just a bit in the Cotton Bowl, is that they can’t sustain that level of play indefinitely. While their dominant victories against Oregon and Tennessee were exceptional, there’s a good chance they won’t play at that level again, simply due to the nature of the playoff and the unique challenges each game presents.
That’s where the percentages come in. What happens if Ohio State plays at 90% in the Cotton Bowl? If they can still execute at a high level, without needing to hit the peak of their powers every single snap, they should have more than enough to defeat Texas. This is a team with an explosive offense, an experienced defense, and enough depth across the board to weather a tough matchup. In fact, even if they dip a little below 90%, let’s say down to 80%, they still should have enough to defeat Texas.
The challenge here is finding that balance between maintaining focus and not overexerting themselves. Ohio State has shown the ability to dominate when they’re fully locked in, but what’s more important now is consistency and mental sharpness. You don’t want to exhaust yourself, overplay your hand, or make mistakes when the margin for error is razor-thin. So, when I say 80% might still work, I mean that the Buckeyes don’t need to replicate their previous two games to win—they just need to play smart, avoid mistakes, and capitalize on Texas’ weaknesses.
Can Ohio State Adjust to a Different Type of Game?
If we’re looking at the Cotton Bowl as a comparison, Texas presents a completely different kind of challenge than Oregon or Tennessee. Texas plays a more physical, grind-it-out style of football, much like Michigan did in the regular season. The Longhorns’ defense is one of the toughest Ohio State has faced all year, and their offense, led by Quinn Ewers, is capable of putting up points in a hurry. The key to Ohio State’s success will be whether they can adjust to the Longhorns’ physicality while maintaining their offensive firepower.
This is where Ohio State needs to be prepared for a game that may be more like their late-November loss to Michigan than their playoff demolitions. If Texas can limit the Buckeyes’ explosive plays and keep the game close, it could force Ohio State into a slugfest. While the Buckeyes have shown they can execute in high-pressure situations, they’ll need to adjust to the physical style that Texas brings to the table. The good news for Ohio State is that their defense has proven capable of standing up to a physical offense, but they will have to be on top of their game for all four quarters.
The X-Factor: Ohio State’s Mental Approach
Ohio State has all the tools to win this game, but the most important factor will be their mental approach. If they’re playing at 100%, they have enough talent to crush any team, but the key to success is managing their energy and avoiding mistakes. After their dominant performances in the first two rounds of the playoffs, it’s easy to imagine a sense of overconfidence creeping into the locker room. That’s why I believe Ohio State doesn’t need to play at full throttle to win—they simply need to play with focus and discipline.
It’s easy to get caught up in the excitement after blowing out Oregon, but the Buckeyes must understand that this game will be much closer. Texas won’t roll over like Tennessee or Oregon did. The Longhorns are a battle-tested team, capable of causing Ohio State problems if the Buckeyes aren’t careful.
At the end of the day, Ohio State doesn’t need to be perfect. If they play at 90%—even 80%—they can still beat Texas and punch their ticket to the National Championship Game. They don’t need to be flawless, but they need to stay sharp, make the plays when it counts, and execute when the game is on the line. If they do that, the Buckeyes should have no problem advancing. But anything less, and it could get interesting. The Cotton Bowl will be a test of Ohio State’s ability to execute under pressure and manage their energy, and the stakes could not be higher.
