The College Football Playoff semifinals are upon us, and I can hardly contain my excitement about these upcoming games. The road to the national championship is nearly complete, and with the field now narrowed down, the matchups we’ve got on tap should deliver the type of thrilling football that fans have come to expect from the most prestigious tournament in college sports.
First up, seventh-seeded Notre Dame will square off against sixth-seeded Penn State in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. A day later, No. 8 seed Ohio State and No. 5 seed Texas will meet in the Cotton Bowl. If you’ve followed my predictions, you’ll know I’ve been confident in this season’s playoff forecast, as I actually predicted these two teams to meet in the national championship game at the start of the year. So, seeing Ohio State and Texas this far along the journey feels like validation of my early-season expectations.
Looking ahead, I sense that one of these matchups is going to be a bit of a tight battle, while the other could turn out to be more decisive. The dynamic nature of the playoff has created an unpredictable tournament so far, and I’m hopeful that these games continue to deliver the excitement and high stakes we’ve come to associate with the CFP. My track record this season has been solid—54-33 against the spread—so I’m ready to dive into these matchups with confidence.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State: A Battle of Physicality
Let’s start with Notre Dame versus Penn State. This game promises to be one of those contests that could go either way, as both teams bring unique strengths to the table. Notre Dame has proven itself to be a resilient and dynamic team all season, and I have a strong feeling that this game will be more of a dogfight than many expect.
What stands out about Notre Dame this season, particularly after its impressive win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, is that it’s built for playoff football. This is a fast, physical team that’s constructed in the mold of a championship contender. In that Sugar Bowl victory, the Irish won the battle in the trenches, something that would have seemed impossible just a few seasons ago when Notre Dame was often outmuscled by more talented programs.
This season, however, head coach Marcus Freeman has developed a roster that is both fast and physical—traits that will serve them well as they aim to make a deep run in the playoff. Against Georgia, Notre Dame showed exactly how to win games like these: dominate up front. The Irish controlled the line of scrimmage, giving Georgia little room to maneuver and stymying the Bulldogs’ potent offense. They weren’t just physical on defense; they were also able to create offensive success by imposing their will up front.
What’s even more impressive is that Notre Dame achieved this despite dealing with significant adversity throughout the season. The Irish lost two starting offensive linemen, two starting edge rushers, All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison, and defensive tackle Rylie Mills along the way. Those were key pieces to their success, and yet, they kept on pushing forward, getting better with each game. That speaks to the remarkable depth that Freeman has been able to develop. The fact that they were able to defeat Georgia in relatively dominant fashion, despite missing those vital players, is a testament to their roster depth and resilience. It really is an incredible turnaround for a program that has often fallen short in big moments in the past.
As for Penn State, they’re not a team to take lightly. I do think they have a similar blueprint for success, relying on a tough, gritty approach to win games. Their defense is solid, and their offense has found ways to get the job done when it matters most. But while I respect the Nittany Lions’ abilities, I just feel that Notre Dame has more to offer in terms of all-around team strength. The Irish have a perfect balance of offense, defense, and depth. They’ve been through more adversity and come out stronger on the other side. This one’s going to be close, but I think Notre Dame has the edge.
Ohio State vs. Texas: A Clash of Two Powerhouses
Now, let’s shift focus to the Cotton Bowl, where Ohio State will face Texas in a matchup that promises to be a classic. This is the game that I’ve been eagerly awaiting all season, as it pits two of the most talented teams in the nation against each other. In many ways, this feels like the de facto national championship game, with the winner likely to face off against the victor of Notre Dame-Penn State for the ultimate prize.
Both Ohio State and Texas have their share of strengths, and I believe we’re going to see a highly competitive, back-and-forth battle that could come down to the final possession.
Ohio State, led by head coach Ryan Day, has one of the most explosive offenses in college football. They’ve been able to put up huge numbers all season long, thanks in large part to quarterback Quinn Ewers, who has been sensational this year. His ability to make throws from anywhere on the field makes Ohio State a dangerous team to play against. The Buckeyes also have a solid defense that can make key stops when necessary, but what sets them apart is their offensive firepower. They can strike quickly and with devastating force.
Texas, on the other hand, has been a team that thrives on physicality and discipline. Their defense is one of the best in the country, and their offense, while not as explosive as Ohio State’s, has found a good balance of power and efficiency. Texas also boasts an experienced quarterback in Quinn Ewers, who may be a little more familiar with Ohio State’s defense, considering his history with the Buckeyes. That added element could provide the Longhorns with an edge.
Where I think the game could tip in Ohio State’s favor is in the versatility of their offense. The Buckeyes are capable of winning in different ways—whether it’s through the air, on the ground, or with a big play. That’s not to say Texas doesn’t have its own playmakers, but I believe Ohio State’s ability to adapt will give them the upper hand in what will likely be a close and physical game.
What to Expect in the Semifinals
As I said earlier, I predict that one of these games will be a tight battle, while the other could end with a more decisive outcome. Given the strengths of the teams involved, it’s tough to pick an absolute favorite, but I do feel that Notre Dame will have the edge over Penn State, and Ohio State’s explosive offense will likely prove too much for Texas to handle.
Overall, the expanded College Football Playoff has been a huge success, bringing more teams into the fold and creating matchups that are both exciting and unpredictable. As we head into these semifinal games, I expect more thrilling moments and high-stakes football. Whether it’s the fast, physical play of Notre Dame or the offensive firepower of Ohio State, I have no doubt that these games will provide us with all the drama and excitement we’ve come to love about playoff football.
