The 2024 College Football Playoff (CFP) has shaped up to be a thrilling tournament, and the Cotton Bowl, where the Ohio State Buckeyes face off against the Texas Longhorns, promises to be one of the most exciting matchups. Ohio State, with a 11-2 record, has shown incredible resilience following their loss to Michigan and their ability to bounce back after a disappointing setback. Texas, with a 13-2 record, is making its first appearance in the postseason since 2009 and has proven its own strength on both sides of the ball. As the two teams prepare to square off, let’s dive into their key strengths and weaknesses, along with what each team needs to do to advance to the CFP Championship Game.
Ohio State Buckeyes: The Elite Force with Minor Weaknesses
Ohio State enters the Cotton Bowl as the top-ranked team in FBS according to SP+, largely due to their stellar all-around play on both offense and defense. After suffering a crushing defeat to Michigan, Ohio State quickly put that loss behind them and put together two dominating performances in the CFP, starting with a 42-17 win over Tennessee in the first round. In that game, they shut down Tennessee’s explosive passing attack, limiting them to just 104 yards through the air. Then, in the quarterfinals against Oregon, the Buckeyes’ defense absolutely stifled the Ducks, holding them to -23 rushing yards on 28 carries and opening the game with five consecutive 30+ yard touchdowns before Oregon even had a chance to score.
Offensively, Ohio State is incredibly efficient and ranks in the top 10 nationally in success rate, expected points added per play (EPA/play), and marginal efficiency. The Buckeyes have an explosive offense capable of striking quickly, led by quarterback Kyle McCord and playmakers like Marvin Harrison Jr. The running game is balanced, with both power and breakaway speed, making them a difficult team to defend against.
However, despite their overall dominance, Ohio State does have a few areas that need improvement. The offensive line has had issues dealing with extra rushers, ranking 78th nationally with a 9.2% sack rate when blitzed. They also have an elevated 10.2% blown run block rate, which ranks 94th in the country. These weaknesses have not been fully exposed yet, but Texas could exploit them if they’re able to create pressure with a variety of blitz packages. If Texas is able to disrupt Ohio State’s offensive line, it could prevent the Buckeyes from reaching their full potential offensively.
Defensively, Ohio State is elite, with the nation’s best-ranked defense according to SP+. The Buckeyes have a stifling secondary that has allowed the fifth-fewest deep passes in the country, with only 9.3% of passes being thrown 20+ yards downfield. The defensive line is also a force to be reckoned with, ranking fifth nationally with a 43.4% pressure rate and second with a sensational 9.8% sack rate. While the Buckeyes’ secondary has allowed a somewhat elevated 60.1% completion rate (63rd), they still rank third overall in EPA/dropback, meaning that short-yardage completions do not hurt them much.
Ohio State’s defense thrives on applying pressure, limiting explosive plays, and forcing quick throws. With their strong defensive line, they will need to make sure to contain Texas’ potent rushing attack and put pressure on quarterback Quinn Ewers, who will be key in orchestrating the Longhorns’ offense.
Texas Longhorns: Offensive Firepower and Defensive Prowess
Texas, under head coach Steve Sarkisian, has been a dominant force in the postseason, making their first appearance in the CFP since 2009. Despite a narrow loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the Longhorns have proven they can hang with the best, finishing the season with a 13-2 record and a strong all-around team. They’ve shown their ability to pound the ball on the ground and put up explosive plays when necessary.
In the first round of the CFP, Texas ran for 292 yards on 6.1 yards per carry against a Clemson defense that had no answer for their physicality. The Longhorns cruised to a 38-24 victory, showcasing their potent rushing attack and the effectiveness of their offensive line. However, things were much tougher in the quarterfinals against Arizona State, where Texas barely escaped with a 39-31 win after two overtime periods. Arizona State managed to outgain Texas 510-375, but the Longhorns were able to capitalize on timely mistakes by ASU, including a late interception and a controversial non-targeting call.
Offensively, Texas ranks eighth in SP+, 13th in rushing success rate, and third in explosive play rate at 9.6%. They have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, led by running back Bijan Robinson, and they’ll look to lean on him to control the tempo of the game. If Texas can establish the run early, they’ll be able to set up play-action passes, which will give Ewers more time and space to make plays downfield.
Defensively, Texas has also been impressive. Their secondary is one of the best in the country, ranking first in yards per dropback allowed at 4.1 and third in interception rate at 5.2%. They also have a solid pass rush, ranking sixth in FBS with an 8.8% sack rate. Texas is stout against the run, ranking seventh in EPA per rush, and they’ll need to bring that same level of intensity against Ohio State’s powerful offense.
Keys to Victory for Ohio State
For Ohio State to advance to the CFP Championship game, they’ll need to continue to play their brand of high-efficiency football. Their offense has been nearly unstoppable, but the key will be for the offensive line to protect McCord and give him time to work through progressions. If the Buckeyes can prevent Texas’ defensive line from disrupting their rhythm, they should be able to move the ball consistently. Defensively, Ohio State will need to continue to apply pressure with their elite defensive line and prevent Texas from getting into a rhythm on the ground. If they can force Texas to become one-dimensional and rely on Ewers to make plays under duress, the Buckeyes should have the upper hand.
Keys to Victory for Texas
Texas will need to execute a balanced offensive game plan, relying on their explosive rushing attack to wear down Ohio State’s defense. If they can run the ball effectively, they’ll be able to set up play-action passes and give Ewers the chance to take shots downfield. On defense, the key will be to disrupt Ohio State’s passing game by sending extra rushers and forcing McCord to make quick decisions. If they can limit big plays and keep the Buckeyes off schedule, they’ll have a shot to upset Ohio State.
Conclusion: A Classic CFP Showdown
This Cotton Bowl matchup between Ohio State and Texas has all the makings of a classic. Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and they each have their strengths and weaknesses. Ohio State’s explosive offense and elite defense give them the edge on paper, but Texas’ balanced attack and strong defense make them a formidable opponent. If Texas can execute their game plan and limit Ohio State’s big plays, they have a legitimate chance to pull off the upset. However, the Buckeyes are a complete team that has been nearly unstoppable in the playoffs, and they’ll be tough to beat. Regardless of the outcome, this game promises to be one of the most exciting in recent memory, with both teams looking to punch their ticket to the CFP Championship.
