The College Football Playoff (CFP) is one of the most eagerly awaited events of the college football season, and one of the standout games in this year’s postseason will be the Cotton Bowl semifinal between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Texas Longhorns. This matchup will be critical in determining which team advances to the national championship game, and it has all the makings of a thrilling contest, with two powerhouse programs facing off in what promises to be an electric environment.
This article will delve into the forecasts and odds for the Cotton Bowl CFP semifinal, providing an in-depth analysis of both teams, including their strengths and weaknesses, key players to watch, and the betting odds surrounding the game. Let’s break down the game from every angle.
Overview of Both Teams
Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes have been one of the most consistent and dominant programs in college football over the past two decades. Under head coach Ryan Day, they’ve maintained a strong tradition of excellence, and this season is no different. The Buckeyes come into this game with a record of 11-1, with their only loss coming at the hands of Michigan in the regular season finale. Despite this setback, Ohio State remains one of the most complete teams in the nation.
Offense:
Offensively, Ohio State is led by their star quarterback, Kyle McCord. McCord, who has been steady throughout the season, has shown the ability to make big plays when needed, but has also benefited from the exceptional talent surrounding him. The Buckeyes’ receiving corps is among the best in the country, headlined by Marvin Harrison Jr., a consensus All-American and a top NFL draft prospect. Harrison Jr. has been a dynamic playmaker all season, and his ability to stretch the field will be key for Ohio State’s success against Texas.
Ohio State’s run game is another strength, powered by TreVeyon Henderson, who has provided a strong and consistent ground game throughout the year. The offensive line, while not as dominant as in previous years, still ranks highly in the nation and gives McCord and Henderson the time and space they need to execute the offense effectively.
Defense:
On the defensive side of the ball, Ohio State is one of the best in the nation, ranking in the top 10 in most defensive categories. Defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau has been a terror all season, and his ability to pressure the quarterback and disrupt plays will be crucial against a high-powered Texas offense. The Buckeyes’ secondary, led by safety Lathan Ransom, is also highly ranked, and they’ll need to be on their toes to deal with Texas’ potent passing attack.
Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns, under head coach Steve Sarkisian, have been one of the most impressive teams in college football this season. The Longhorns come into the Cotton Bowl with a 12-1 record, with their only loss coming in a tough game to Oklahoma State. Texas has shown significant improvement throughout the season, particularly on offense, where they’ve become one of the most dynamic and dangerous teams in the nation.
Offense:
Texas’ offensive success begins and ends with their star quarterback, Quinn Ewers. Ewers, who was a top recruit when he came to Texas, has developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the country this season. He has a strong arm, impressive mobility, and the ability to make big throws under pressure. Ewers will be key to Texas’ success in this game, as Ohio State’s defense will undoubtedly focus on limiting his ability to make deep throws downfield.
The Longhorns also have a potent ground game, led by running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson has been one of the best running backs in college football this season, and his ability to pound the rock between the tackles will be crucial in keeping Ohio State’s defense off-balance. Texas’ offensive line has improved over the course of the season and will need to hold up against a formidable Ohio State front seven.
Texas’ receiving corps, featuring Xavier Worthy and Jordan Whittington, provides Ewers with a pair of dynamic playmakers who can stretch the field and make big plays. The balance between the run and pass game is what makes Texas so dangerous offensively, and they’ll look to exploit Ohio State’s defense with quick passing and powerful runs.
Defense:
Texas’ defense is also a strong suit, ranking highly in several categories. The Longhorns’ defensive line, featuring star players like Baron Browning, has been excellent at pressuring the quarterback and stopping the run. The secondary has also been solid, with safeties Jerrin Thompson and Anthony Cook providing strong coverage against opposing receivers.
One area where Texas will need to be particularly sharp is in containing Ohio State’s explosive passing attack. The Longhorns have shown vulnerability at times against elite passing teams, so staying disciplined in the secondary and pressuring McCord will be crucial to keeping Ohio State’s offense in check.
Key Matchup to Watch
One of the most important matchups in this game will be Ohio State’s passing offense against Texas’ secondary. Ohio State has a high-powered passing attack, and with Marvin Harrison Jr. on the field, they have a true game-breaker who can make big plays at any moment. However, Texas has one of the best secondaries in the nation, and their ability to limit Harrison Jr. and Ohio State’s passing game will be a deciding factor in the outcome of this game.
Similarly, Texas’ run game led by Bijan Robinson will face a tough test against an Ohio State defense that has been excellent against the run all season. Ohio State’s front seven, led by J.T. Tuimoloau and linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, will need to stop Robinson early to force Ewers into passing situations. If they can shut down Robinson and force Ewers into third-and-long situations, they’ll have a significant advantage.
Forecast for the Game
Both teams come into this game with elite talent on both sides of the ball, and it’s likely to be a closely contested affair. Ohio State’s defense will need to contain the dual threat of Quinn Ewers and Bijan Robinson, while Texas’ defense will need to be on point to limit Ohio State’s passing game, especially Marvin Harrison Jr.
The game will likely come down to a few key factors:
- Quarterback Play: Both McCord and Ewers are capable of leading their respective teams to victory, but both have shown inconsistencies at times. Whichever quarterback can minimize mistakes and make plays in critical moments will give their team a significant edge.
- Turnovers: Turnovers have the potential to swing this game. Both teams have been opportunistic on defense this season, and any interception or fumble could be the difference between winning and losing.
- Special Teams: Special teams can often be overlooked, but in a game as big as this one, a big return, a missed field goal, or a key punt can make a huge difference. Both teams have solid special teams units, and a mistake in this area could prove costly.
Betting Odds and Forecast
As of now, the odds are tight, reflecting the parity between these two teams. Based on current betting lines, Texas is favored by a slight margin, with the odds reflecting their slightly better overall record and offensive firepower.
Spread:
Texas -2.5
Over/Under:
The total for the game is set at 62 points, which reflects expectations for a relatively high-scoring game given the offensive weapons on both sides.
Moneyline:
Texas -125
Ohio State +105
