As of January 2025, Roki Sasaki, a 22-year-old Japanese baseball prodigy, continues to make headlines as one of the brightest pitching prospects in the world. The Los Angeles Dodgers, with their storied history of scouting international talent and their financial prowess, would be one of the major teams interested in signing him if the opportunity arose. The question of how much money the Dodgers could offer Sasaki, however, is complex and depends on several factors, including MLB’s financial structure, Sasaki’s potential value, and historical precedents for similar international signings.
1. Sasaki’s Background and Potential
Roki Sasaki is widely regarded as one of the most talented pitchers to come out of Japan in recent years. Born on November 3, 2001, in Japan, he quickly gained attention for his exceptional talent. Sasaki broke onto the global stage with his perfect game in the 2022 season, which garnered worldwide attention. Known for his extraordinary fastball, which regularly touches 102 mph (164 km/h), and his devastating splitter, Sasaki’s skill set makes him a rare talent in the world of baseball.
Sasaki has already proven himself in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), pitching for the Chiba Lotte Marines. His dominance in NPB, along with his advanced pitching tools and maturity on the mound, positions him as a top-tier prospect for any major league team. While still young, Sasaki’s potential for immediate success in Major League Baseball (MLB) is immense, making him a highly coveted player.
2. MLB Posting System and Sasaki’s Status
Sasaki is not yet eligible for the MLB draft because he is a foreign player. To join an MLB team, Sasaki would have to go through the MLB posting system. Under this system, Japanese players (and those from other countries with posting agreements with MLB) are made available to MLB teams via a process that allows teams to bid for exclusive negotiating rights.
The posting system includes two parts:
- Posting Fee: The Japanese team that holds the player’s contract (in Sasaki’s case, the Chiba Lotte Marines) would be paid a posting fee, which is typically a percentage of the negotiated contract. The posting fee is capped at $20 million.
- Contract: After winning the bid, MLB teams are allowed to negotiate a contract with the player. The actual terms of the contract depend on the team and the player’s desires, as well as the market for the player.
For a player like Sasaki, the posting fee would likely be at the maximum cap, meaning any team bidding for him would need to be prepared to offer up to $20 million simply for the rights to negotiate a contract. Once the posting fee is paid, the team can then focus on structuring a contract with Sasaki.
3. The Dodgers’ Financial Capacity and History with International Players
The Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the wealthiest teams in Major League Baseball, and they have consistently demonstrated a strong commitment to building an international scouting network. Over the years, the Dodgers have signed several high-profile international players, including the likes of Cuban defectors Yasiel Puig and Julio Urías, as well as international free agents from other countries. The Dodgers’ financial resources allow them to pursue high-profile signings, and their strong organizational structure and player development system make them an attractive destination for top talent.
Historically, the Dodgers have had success in international markets, often utilizing a strategy of identifying undervalued players in regions like the Dominican Republic and Japan. This international strategy has paid off, with several key contributors to the team coming from outside of North America. The Dodgers’ reputation for developing young talent, coupled with their ability to spend on high-profile players, means that they would be well-positioned to make a serious run at acquiring Sasaki’s services.
4. How Much Money Could the Dodgers Offer Sasaki?
Post-Posting Fee Contract Terms
Once the Dodgers win the posting rights for Sasaki, they will then need to negotiate a contract. Sasaki’s value in terms of his contract is influenced by several factors, including his talent, the demand for him across MLB, and the size of the Dodgers’ payroll.
A. Estimated Contract Value
Sasaki’s skill set suggests that he could be a game-changing pitcher in MLB. Given his age, fastball velocity, and overall potential, Sasaki could be looking at a contract worth hundreds of millions of dollars. To put this into perspective, let’s compare Sasaki to other high-profile international signings in recent years:
- Shohei Ohtani: While Ohtani was a free agent and not subject to the posting system, his contract history offers insight into the potential value of a player like Sasaki. Ohtani, who signed a $2.315 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels in 2017 after his posting process, eventually earned a larger contract when his market value rose. If Sasaki is able to match Ohtani’s success, he could command a contract in a similar range once his posting rights are secured.
- Masahiro Tanaka: Tanaka signed a seven-year, $155 million deal with the New York Yankees in 2014. While his contract was more modest than Ohtani’s, it still sets a benchmark for what top-tier Japanese pitchers can earn in MLB.
Given Sasaki’s age (just 22) and his extraordinary talent, a contract worth $200 million or more is a realistic expectation, especially if multiple teams enter the bidding for him.
B. Potential Offer from the Dodgers
The Dodgers have shown a willingness to spend on high-profile players. In recent years, they have secured contracts with high-end free agents like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Trevor Bauer (although his tenure was brief). If the Dodgers were to pursue Sasaki, it’s likely they would offer a long-term deal in the range of $200 million or more.
A typical contract for a player of Sasaki’s caliber could look like this:
- Years: 6-10 years
- Total Value: $200 million to $250 million
- Average Annual Value (AAV): $20 million to $25 million
These numbers are purely speculative but are based on current market trends for elite starting pitchers. A deal of this magnitude would allow the Dodgers to secure Sasaki’s services for a significant portion of his prime, capitalizing on his immense upside.
C. Escalating Payments and Bonuses
In addition to the base contract, teams often structure deals with escalating salaries, signing bonuses, and performance-based incentives. Sasaki’s deal could include:
- Signing Bonus: A substantial signing bonus of $10 million to $20 million could be included in the deal to sweeten the offer.
- Performance Incentives: Sasaki’s contract could include bonuses for All-Star appearances, Cy Young voting, innings pitched, or other milestones. This would allow the Dodgers to incentivize Sasaki while also aligning his compensation with his performance.
D. Market Dynamics and Competition
The amount of money the Dodgers can offer Sasaki would also depend on the competition from other MLB teams. Given Sasaki’s rare talent, teams like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and San Francisco Giants would likely be in the running, and they could push the price up. However, the Dodgers are uniquely positioned to offer a competitive bid, both financially and from a player development perspective.
The bidding process could be influenced by the Dodgers’ ability to offer not just money, but also a strong chance of competing for championships. The Dodgers are one of the most successful franchises in recent years, consistently making deep playoff runs. This could be an appealing factor for Sasaki, who might prefer joining a team that is competitive year in and year out.
