As of January 2025, the question of who will succeed Mike McCarthy as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys remains uncertain. The speculation around this potential transition stems from McCarthy’s performance during his tenure with the team, the Cowboys’ organizational culture, and the shifting dynamics of the NFL coaching landscape. McCarthy, a Super Bowl-winning coach with the Green Bay Packers, was hired by the Cowboys in 2020 after the firing of longtime coach Jason Garrett. However, despite some improvement in the Cowboys’ performance, questions remain about whether McCarthy can lead the team to a Super Bowl victory, especially given the immense talent on the roster and the high expectations that come with being the head coach of America’s Team.
In this article, we will analyze the potential candidates to replace McCarthy, assess the current state of the Cowboys, and explore the factors that could influence the team’s decision when the time comes to move on from their current head coach.
The State of the Dallas Cowboys Under Mike McCarthy
McCarthy took over the head coach role for the Cowboys in 2020, succeeding Jason Garrett, who had served as head coach for a decade but failed to deliver consistent playoff success. Under McCarthy, the Cowboys have had a mixed record of success, marked by playoff appearances and high expectations, but also by occasional underperformance.
- 2020 Season: McCarthy’s first season was marred by injuries, particularly to quarterback Dak Prescott, who suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 5. Despite the adversity, McCarthy was able to guide the team to a 6-10 record in a down NFC East, which led to a missed playoff berth.
- 2021 Season: The Cowboys bounced back with an impressive 12-5 record, winning the NFC East title. The team’s offense, led by Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and CeeDee Lamb, looked potent, and the defense showed signs of improvement under coordinator Dan Quinn. However, the Cowboys were eliminated in the Wild Card round by the San Francisco 49ers, a loss that raised questions about McCarthy’s ability to win big games.
- 2022 Season: McCarthy’s second consecutive playoff appearance with the Cowboys ended with another early postseason exit, this time a divisional round loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The team finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, but their inability to progress past the divisional round continued to cast doubt on McCarthy’s ability to get the Cowboys over the hump.
- 2023 Season: The Cowboys continued to be a strong contender under McCarthy, posting a solid regular-season record. However, the postseason still loomed as the ultimate test. Another disappointing playoff exit or failure to advance to a Super Bowl would likely accelerate the conversation about McCarthy’s future in Dallas.
While McCarthy has led the Cowboys to multiple playoff appearances, the team has not been able to break through to the NFC Championship game or win a Super Bowl during his tenure. This lack of postseason success, particularly in big games, has kept the Cowboys’ Super Bowl aspirations unfulfilled and fueled the question of whether McCarthy is the right man for the job.
Factors Influencing the Decision
Before diving into potential replacements, it’s important to understand the factors that could influence the decision to part ways with McCarthy.
- Team Success and Performance: Ultimately, the Cowboys’ decision will hinge on the team’s success in the postseason. While the team has been competitive under McCarthy, Jerry Jones, the owner and general manager of the Cowboys, is known for his high expectations and his desire to win another Super Bowl. If McCarthy’s Cowboys fail to reach the NFC Championship game, or if they continue to underperform in the playoffs, Jones may decide that a coaching change is necessary to reach the next level.
- Dak Prescott’s Development: Prescott is the face of the franchise, and how well he develops under McCarthy’s system will play a pivotal role in determining McCarthy’s future. If Prescott continues to improve and lead the team to success, McCarthy’s chances of staying as head coach improve. Conversely, if Prescott regresses or fails to perform at a high level in key moments, McCarthy may be held accountable.
- Coaching Staff Stability: McCarthy’s coaching staff, particularly defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, has garnered a lot of praise. Quinn, who helped transform the Cowboys’ defense after his arrival, could be a key factor in McCarthy’s job security. If McCarthy’s staff remains intact and continues to perform at a high level, the Cowboys’ management may be less inclined to make a change.
- Player Relations and Leadership: McCarthy’s relationship with the players is also an important factor. He has managed to build strong relationships with key veterans like Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and DeMarcus Lawrence. If players continue to respond well to McCarthy’s leadership, it could keep him in the role longer. However, if the locker room begins to sour or if there’s internal discord, a change could be imminent.
Potential Candidates to Succeed McCarthy
If Jerry Jones decides to part ways with Mike McCarthy, he will have several potential candidates to consider. The Cowboys’ job is one of the most coveted in the NFL due to the franchise’s immense resources, star power, and media attention. Here are some potential candidates who could succeed McCarthy as head coach of the Cowboys:
- Dan Quinn (Defensive Coordinator)
Dan Quinn is widely regarded as one of the top defensive minds in the NFL. His turnaround of the Cowboys’ defense since joining as defensive coordinator in 2021 has been impressive. Under Quinn, the Cowboys have significantly improved defensively, with standout players like Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, and DeMarcus Lawrence emerging as stars.
Quinn’s previous head coaching experience with the Atlanta Falcons, where he led the team to a Super Bowl appearance in 2017, makes him a strong candidate. He is familiar with the pressures of being a head coach, and his success in Dallas has generated considerable buzz regarding his potential as a future head coach. If McCarthy’s tenure ends due to a lack of success in the playoffs, Quinn could be the next in line, particularly if the Cowboys’ defense continues to excel.
- Kellen Moore (Offensive Coordinator)
Kellen Moore, the Cowboys’ offensive coordinator, is another name that frequently comes up in coaching discussions. Moore has been credited with the development of Dak Prescott and the growth of the Cowboys’ offense, which has been consistently among the league’s best since he took over in 2019. He is known for his innovative play-calling and his ability to get the most out of his quarterbacks.
While Moore is still relatively young (he was born in 1988), he has quickly become one of the hottest young coaching prospects in the league. If McCarthy is let go, Moore could be the natural successor, especially with his deep understanding of the offense and the development of Prescott. However, his lack of head coaching experience could be a hurdle, and it remains to be seen if Jones is willing to take a risk on such an unproven commodity.
- Sean Payton (Former Head Coach, New Orleans Saints)
Sean Payton is one of the most successful and respected head coaches in NFL history. After stepping away from the New Orleans Saints following the 2021 season, Payton quickly became one of the most sought-after coaching candidates. Payton’s resume speaks for itself, with a Super Bowl win and consistent success during his tenure with the Saints.
Payton’s style of offense, which emphasizes a strong passing game and creative play-calling, could mesh well with the Cowboys’ offensive personnel. Payton’s experience and success in big games would be attractive to Jerry Jones, particularly if the Cowboys fail to win a Super Bowl under McCarthy.
- Jim Harbaugh (Head Coach, University of Michigan)
Jim Harbaugh has been a successful head coach at both the collegiate and NFL levels. After a successful stint with the San Francisco 49ers, where he led the team to a Super Bowl appearance, Harbaugh returned to Michigan and has turned the Wolverines into a national powerhouse. His competitive nature and leadership style would make him a strong candidate for an NFL head coaching job.
Although Harbaugh is currently at Michigan, his potential return to the NFL has been a subject of speculation. His track record in high-pressure situations and his ability to build a winning culture could make him an attractive option for the Cowboys if they decide to make a change.
- Matt Eberflus (Head Coach, Chicago Bears)
Matt Eberflus, who took over as head coach of the Chicago Bears in 2022, has shown potential as a defensive-minded coach with a focus on building a strong team culture. While his time with the Bears has been inconsistent, his background as a defensive coordinator and his leadership abilities could make him an appealing candidate for the Cowboys, especially if they decide to go in a different direction following McCarthy’s tenure.
