Oklahoma and Four Underappreciated College Football Teams in the 2026 Playoffs

Oklahoma and 4 Sleeper Teams for the 2026 College Football Playoff

As college football continues to evolve with shifting dynamics, new coaching staffs, and emerging talent, the College Football Playoff (CFP) remains the ultimate goal for every program. With new opportunities, expanded recruitments, and a changing landscape, many teams are vying for their place in the postseason spotlight. While powerhouse programs such as Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia are perennial favorites to make it into the College Football Playoff, the path to the playoff can often be unpredictable. Upsets, breakthrough performances, and late-season runs have historically paved the way for teams that seem unlikely contenders.

As we look ahead to the 2026 College Football Playoff, a handful of sleeper teams—those outside the typical elite programs—are quietly building strong foundations that could allow them to sneak into the playoff picture. These programs, including Oklahoma, have invested in elite coaching, recruiting, and player development, setting the stage for potential surprise runs to the postseason. Below, we will analyze Oklahoma’s rise in the next few years and explore four other sleeper teams that could break into the playoff conversation in 2026.

Oklahoma Sooners: Poised for a Breakthrough

When you think about college football, Oklahoma is a program that’s rarely far from the national conversation. With a rich history, including multiple conference championships and College Football Playoff appearances, the Sooners are no strangers to success. However, since their last Playoff appearance in 2019, Oklahoma has been building toward a potential resurgence under head coach Brent Venables, who took over the program after the departure of Lincoln Riley.

The Sooners have made significant strides in their efforts to return to the playoff, especially in terms of recruiting, talent acquisition, and defensive development. Venables, a former defensive coordinator for Clemson, is known for his ability to construct tough, elite defenses, something that Oklahoma has struggled with in recent years.

Why Oklahoma is a Sleeper for the 2026 College Football Playoff:

1. Recruiting Surge: Oklahoma’s recruiting classes have consistently ranked among the best in the nation, and under Venables, there has been a renewed emphasis on securing top defensive talent. The 2025 and 2026 classes are expected to be stacked with both offensive and defensive prospects, particularly in positions like quarterback, defensive line, and wide receiver. This influx of talent should give the Sooners a well-rounded roster that could help them compete with the nation’s elite teams.
2. Quarterback Play: The development of a top-tier quarterback has always been a key ingredient for success at Oklahoma, and with the commitment of Dylan Raiola, the No. 1 QB in the 2024 class, the Sooners have the potential to develop another Heisman-caliber signal caller. Raiola, along with a strong supporting cast of skill players, could provide the offensive firepower needed to match the nation’s best.
3. Defensive Overhaul: Venables’ defensive philosophy has started to take shape, and the Sooners’ defense has shown signs of improvement. With better defensive recruiting and coaching, Oklahoma could transform into a more balanced team capable of matching their explosive offense with a solid defense, something that will be crucial when facing elite SEC competition.
4. SEC Move: In 2025, Oklahoma will officially join the SEC, marking a new chapter in the program’s history. While the transition will be challenging, Oklahoma has the resources, coaching staff, and talent to be competitive in the nation’s toughest conference. The change could actually propel the Sooners into a more prestigious position, giving them more opportunities for marquee wins and stronger postseason positioning.

Given these factors, the Sooners’ combination of elite talent on both sides of the ball and their ability to compete in the SEC could make them a sleeper pick for the 2026 College Football Playoff.

1. Oregon Ducks: Pac-12 Champions on the Rise

As the Pac-12 conference continues to evolve and shape its identity, Oregon has quietly emerged as one of the teams to watch for the 2026 season. The Ducks have a solid history of competing at a high level, with multiple Rose Bowl victories, a national championship appearance, and consistent top-25 finishes. With the growth of Dan Lanning’s program, Oregon is poised to take another step toward playoff contention in the next few years.

Why Oregon is a Sleeper for the 2026 College Football Playoff:

1. Strong Recruiting Momentum: Oregon has emerged as a strong contender in recruiting, frequently landing top-tier talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With Lanning’s defensive background, Oregon’s defense is expected to be one of the best in the country in the years to come. With an emphasis on building a complete, balanced team, the Ducks are shaping up to be a serious playoff contender.
2. Quarterback Development: Oregon has a solid quarterback pipeline, with players like Bo Nix transferring in and helping lead the team. The Ducks’ ability to develop quarterbacks is a key factor in their rise, and future classes are expected to bring in highly talented signal-callers who could elevate the offense to new heights.
3. Powerful Recruiting in the Pacific Northwest: Oregon has a distinct advantage in terms of recruiting in the Pacific Northwest, an area rich with football talent that they can continue to build around. The ability to recruit locally and regionally while also pulling talent from other areas of the country will give Oregon a competitive edge.
4. Schedule Strength: Oregon’s schedule in the upcoming years, including high-profile non-conference matchups and competitive Pac-12 games, will provide the Ducks with ample opportunities to make a statement. The Pac-12’s expansion with new teams will only increase the competitiveness of the conference, and Oregon’s strength of schedule could work in their favor when the playoff rankings are considered.

2. TCU Horned Frogs: A New Power in the Big 12

One of the most surprising teams to make a run to the College Football Playoff in recent seasons was TCU, who reached the national championship game in 2023. With head coach Sonny Dykes at the helm, TCU quickly established itself as a dangerous force in college football. The Horned Frogs’ appearance in the CFP was a statement to the rest of the country that they were capable of competing with the nation’s top programs.

Why TCU is a Sleeper for the 2026 College Football Playoff:

1. Sustained Success Under Sonny Dykes: Dykes has proven himself to be a capable head coach who can lead a team to greatness. After taking over a TCU program that was struggling, he quickly turned it into a playoff-caliber team. With continued success in recruiting and player development, TCU could continue its rise toward regular playoff contention.
2. Explosive Offense: TCU has developed one of the most explosive offenses in college football. With high-powered quarterbacks and dynamic skill players, the Horned Frogs are able to score points in bunches. This offensive firepower, combined with a defense that has shown improvement, gives TCU a balanced team that can contend with anyone.
3. Big 12 Championship Contender: As the Big 12 continues to evolve with the departure of Texas and Oklahoma, TCU is well-positioned to establish itself as a perennial conference champion. With less competition for the top spot, TCU could become the standard bearer for the conference, securing a playoff spot through a dominant regular season.
4. Strong Recruiting Pipeline: Dykes and his staff have started to consistently bring in top-tier recruits, especially on the offensive side of the ball. With improved depth across the roster, TCU has the tools to compete at the highest level in the coming years.

3. Penn State Nittany Lions: Big Ten Power Rising

Under head coach James Franklin, Penn State has shown significant growth in recent years. The Nittany Lions have been a steady presence in the Big Ten but have yet to break through to the elite level in the national picture. However, with a strong recruiting class, talented returning players, and a rising sense of urgency, Penn State could be primed for a breakthrough run to the 2026 College Football Playoff.

Why Penn State is a Sleeper for the 2026 College Football Playoff:

1. Elite Recruiting: Penn State has continued to recruit at a high level, bringing in some of the top talent from across the country. With a special focus on the defensive line, running back, and offensive line positions, the Nittany Lions have built a solid foundation that could carry them to national prominence.
2. Strong Defense: Penn State’s defense has always been a hallmark of Franklin’s program. With standout players at multiple positions and a defensive philosophy that is tough and disciplined, the Nittany Lions will continue to be a team that can compete with the best.
3. Quarterback Play: If Drew Allar—the highly touted freshman quarterback—continues to develop and reach his potential, Penn State could have a future Heisman candidate leading their offense. The combination of strong quarterback play and dynamic skill players would give Penn State a dangerous edge.
4. Big Ten Championship Contender: As Ohio State and Michigan remain the dominant forces in the Big Ten, Penn State’s rise could make it a viable challenger for the conference title. A potential Big Ten Championship would greatly enhance their chances of making the College Football Playoff.

4. Michigan State Spartans: Mel Tucker’s Growth

Michigan State has quietly put together a solid foundation under head coach Mel Tucker, who is building a program capable of competing for Big Ten titles. While the Spartans have yet to consistently break through to the elite level, they are making strides in terms of talent acquisition, player development, and overall program strength.

Why Michigan State is a Sleeper for the 2026 College Football Playoff:

1. Improved Recruiting: Michigan State has taken significant steps in terms of recruiting, bringing in highly touted prospects, especially in the trenches. With strong recruiting classes in the coming years, the Spartans could see the depth necessary to make a playoff push.
2. Defensive Identity: Tucker has a history of building elite defenses, and Michigan State’s defense has already shown significant improvement under his guidance. With a strong defense and an offense that can generate big plays, Michigan State has the recipe for success.
3. Big Ten Upset Potential: While Michigan State is not quite at the level of Ohio State or Michigan, they have shown in recent seasons that they are capable of upsetting the top teams in the Big Ten. With continued development, the Spartans could find themselves in the College Football Playoff picture.

Conclusion: The Road to the 2026 College Football Playoff

As we look ahead to the 2026 College Football Playoff, several programs outside the traditional elite powers are primed for a breakout season. Oklahoma, along with Oregon, TCU, Penn State, and Michigan State, have the pieces in place to make a surprise run to the postseason. These programs are investing in recruiting, coaching, and player development, which will allow them to compete at the highest level in the next few seasons.

While many will continue to focus on the usual suspects like Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia, these sleeper teams could prove to be just as dangerous. The 2026 College Football Playoff is shaping up to be a wide-open race, and these programs have the potential to make a significant impact.