Tennessee Football Snubbed from Early 2025 College Football Playoff Projection

 


Tennessee Football Snubbed from Early 2025 College Football Playoff Projection: An Analysis

The College Football Playoff (CFP) is a highly anticipated event each year, with every team vying for a spot in the four-team field that will ultimately determine the national champion. Each season, we see a variety of teams rise to prominence, some continuing to build upon their success, while others struggle to maintain consistent levels of performance. For fans, media, and college football analysts, the postseason projections become an intriguing conversation piece long before the actual committee rankings are released. One such team that has recently drawn significant attention for being left out of the early 2025 CFP projections is the Tennessee Volunteers.

Tennessee has made impressive strides over the last few seasons under head coach Josh Heupel, earning themselves a spot in national conversations once again. Despite this, however, early projections have not been kind to the Volunteers, as they were notably excluded from several major CFP forecasts for the 2025 season. This snub has sparked a debate regarding the Vols’ position in the landscape of college football, with many questioning the reasoning behind such exclusions.

In this article, we will explore the reasons why Tennessee football was snubbed from these early College Football Playoff projections, assess the potential for a path to the Playoff in the 2025 season, and analyze the factors at play that could either help or hinder the Volunteers’ case.

The Tennessee Football Resurgence Under Josh Heupel

Before diving into the specifics of the 2025 projections, it’s important to understand the context of Tennessee’s resurgence over the past few seasons. The Volunteers have long been one of the most storied programs in college football history, but their success had dwindled in the years following their last major championship run in the late 1990s. Tennessee’s football program went through multiple coaching changes, which disrupted its consistency, but the arrival of Josh Heupel in 2021 marked the beginning of a new era for the Vols.

In Heupel’s first season, Tennessee made immediate progress, finishing with a 7-6 record. While the Vols were still in the process of rebuilding, the offensive system that Heupel introduced gave the program a newfound sense of excitement. Heupel’s uptempo offense, centered around a high-flying passing game and a fast pace, quickly became one of the most potent in college football.

In 2022, Tennessee took a massive leap forward, finishing with an 11-2 record and earning a spot in the Citrus Bowl. Most notably, the Volunteers managed to knock off the reigning national champion Alabama Crimson Tide, earning a statement win that captured the attention of college football fans across the nation. The 2022 season also saw Tennessee’s offense reach new heights, with quarterback Hendon Hooker emerging as one of the top players in the nation and wide receiver Jalin Hyatt breaking out as a dynamic playmaker.

By 2023, Tennessee was firmly in the conversation as one of the top teams in the country. Despite losing several key players to the NFL Draft, the Vols managed to maintain a high level of play, finishing with a solid 10-3 record and staying relevant in the SEC, one of the most competitive conferences in all of college football. The Vols’ impressive offensive attack, led by quarterback Joe Milton and a host of talented playmakers, continued to pose a serious threat to defenses.

Despite their consistent upward trajectory, Tennessee has yet to break through into the College Football Playoff field. This brings us to the present day and the early projections for the 2025 season.

Snubbed in Early 2025 CFP Projections: The Case Against Tennessee

Tennessee’s absence from many early 2025 College Football Playoff projections has left many fans scratching their heads. Given the program’s rising profile under Heupel, many expected the Vols to be firmly in the conversation for a spot in the playoff. So, why were they excluded from these projections? A closer look reveals several reasons that may explain why Tennessee has been snubbed in favor of other programs.

1. Strong Competition in the SEC

One of the biggest reasons why Tennessee finds itself on the outside looking in when it comes to early CFP projections is the sheer strength of the Southeastern Conference (SEC). The SEC is arguably the most competitive and dominant conference in college football, and it is home to several teams that are perennial playoff contenders. Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and now even programs like Ole Miss and Mississippi State have become formidable opponents.

For Tennessee, this means that the Vols face an uphill battle in the SEC East, a division that is currently dominated by the Georgia Bulldogs. While Tennessee has shown they can compete with the best of them, Georgia has been a juggernaut under head coach Kirby Smart, winning back-to-back national championships and consistently ranking as one of the top teams in the nation.

Additionally, Alabama’s powerhouse program, led by head coach Nick Saban, and the rising talent at LSU under Brian Kelly make the SEC West equally formidable. As a result, Tennessee’s path to the College Football Playoff would require not only defeating strong teams within its own division but also competing with some of the best teams in the country year in and year out.

In essence, the SEC is a double-edged sword for Tennessee: while the conference offers tremendous opportunities for strength-of-schedule boosts, it also presents a significant challenge in terms of securing a spot in the four-team playoff.

2. Lack of Consistent Elite Talent

While Tennessee’s offense has certainly been dynamic under Heupel’s tutelage, there are still questions surrounding the team’s overall talent level, particularly when compared to other national championship contenders. Teams like Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State have consistently recruited elite talent and developed NFL-caliber players, particularly on defense.

Tennessee’s defense has been a point of concern over the past few seasons, with the Vols struggling to consistently stop high-powered offenses. While the team has made improvements in this area, it is still not on the same level as some of the other top programs, particularly in the trenches. The lack of a dominant defense has hurt Tennessee’s chances of being taken seriously as a national title contender.

Additionally, Tennessee’s recruiting efforts, while strong, have yet to match the consistency of the top-tier programs in college football. While the Vols have brought in several solid recruiting classes under Heupel, there are still questions about whether the program can consistently bring in the blue-chip talent necessary to compete at the highest level.

3. Uncertainty at Quarterback

Tennessee’s offense has been anchored by quarterback Hendon Hooker in recent seasons, but with Hooker moving on to the NFL, the Vols face some uncertainty at the most important position on the field. Joe Milton, who has flashed potential, will likely be the team’s starting quarterback in 2025. While Milton has a strong arm and considerable athleticism, he has yet to fully prove himself as a consistent starter at the highest level.

The uncertainty surrounding the quarterback position has caused many analysts to question whether Tennessee can maintain the same level of offensive explosiveness without Hooker under center. The quarterback play at Tennessee will likely be a key factor in determining whether the Vols can break through into the Playoff picture.

4. Schedule Strength

While Tennessee’s schedule has often been viewed as challenging, it has yet to feature the kind of marquee out-of-conference matchups that other playoff contenders have benefited from. Teams like Ohio State, Alabama, and Georgia often have the luxury of playing non-conference games against top-ranked opponents, which further boosts their playoff resume.

Tennessee’s schedule in the 2025 season, while difficult, may not feature enough high-profile non-conference matchups to give the Vols the necessary strength of schedule boost they need to crack the top four. For teams in the SEC, beating up on conference foes like Vanderbilt or Missouri may not carry the same weight as defeating top-tier non-conference programs.

5. Playoff Tradition and Perception

The College Football Playoff selection committee often gravitates toward programs with a proven track record of playoff success. Programs like Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson have established themselves as perennial contenders, and this history of success often gives them the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the committee.

Tennessee, on the other hand, has not made the Playoff since its inception and is still viewed as a team that is “on the rise.” Until Tennessee can consistently prove itself as a legitimate championship contender, it may continue to be snubbed in favor of programs that have already demonstrated the ability to perform on the biggest stage.

Can Tennessee Overcome the Snub and Break Through in 2025?

Despite the early snubs, Tennessee still has a legitimate path to the College Football Playoff in 2025. The Vols will need to overcome several challenges, including:

  1. Win the SEC East: To make the Playoff, Tennessee will need to defeat Georgia and other top teams in the SEC East, proving that they can compete with the best.
  2. Develop a Strong Defense: To take the next step, Tennessee’s defense must improve and become a more consistent unit that can slow down opposing offenses.
  3. Quarterback Play: Joe Milton, or whoever starts at quarterback, will need to elevate his game and lead the offense to new heights.

With Heupel at the helm, Tennessee is poised for continued success. But, the road to the College Football Playoff will require the Vols to prove themselves on both sides of the ball and navigate a brutal SEC schedule.

 

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