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Paul Finebaum is one of the most well-known and respected voices in college football media. With decades of experience covering the sport, his insights have shaped how fans and analysts view teams, players, and the landscape of college football. Recently, Finebaum made waves by discussing which programs he believes will not have a realistic chance of making a run at the College Football Playoff (CFP) in 2025. According to Finebaum, one major program stands out as unlikely to compete for a CFP spot: the University of Texas.
This claim raises several questions, especially given the high-profile nature of the Texas Longhorns, a program historically known for its rich tradition, resources, and fan base. So why does Finebaum believe Texas won’t be a contender in 2025? What factors contribute to this assessment? And does Finebaum’s argument hold up under scrutiny? In this article, we will explore Finebaum’s reasoning, examine the state of the Texas football program, and discuss whether the Longhorns can prove him wrong.
Paul Finebaum’s Stance on Texas’ CFP Chances in 2025
Paul Finebaum’s comments about Texas not being a serious contender for the College Football Playoff in 2025 were made in the context of evaluating the competitive landscape of college football in the upcoming years. Finebaum pointed to several reasons why he believes the Longhorns will not be able to break through and claim a spot in the four-team playoff. These reasons range from Texas’ lack of sustained success on the field in recent years to the daunting challenge of competing in the powerful Southeastern Conference (SEC) once they officially join in 2024.
Finebaum, known for his candid assessments, wasn’t shy about calling out the program’s inconsistencies, despite the considerable resources at Texas’ disposal. For many, Texas is still a sleeping giant in college football, and Finebaum’s remarks served as a sobering reminder of how far the program has fallen from its glory days. As Finebaum pointed out, while Texas has had flashes of brilliance, they have been unable to string together a truly dominant season for over a decade.
The Texas Longhorns’ Football History
Before diving deeper into Finebaum’s reasoning, it’s essential to understand the context of the Texas football program’s history. Texas has long been one of college football’s elite programs, with a storied history that includes four national championships (1963, 1969, 1970, and 2005), numerous conference titles, and a deep reservoir of talent. The Longhorns have produced legendary players like Earl Campbell, Ricky Williams, Vince Young, and Colt McCoy, all of whom are regarded as some of the best players to ever suit up in college football.
However, despite their storied past, the last 15 years have been a period of mediocrity for the Longhorns. Since Mack Brown’s 2005 national championship appearance, Texas has struggled to regain its former glory. The program has experienced a revolving door of head coaches, with each new hire attempting to restore Texas to the top of college football. After Brown’s departure, Texas hired Charlie Strong, who failed to make a significant impact, followed by Tom Herman, who also fell short of expectations despite showing some promise.
In 2020, Texas hired Steve Sarkisian, a former Alabama offensive coordinator, in an effort to revitalize the program. Sarkisian’s first season was a mixed bag, with the Longhorns finishing with a 7-3 record and showing some offensive fireworks but also losing some games they were favored to win. Sarkisian entered 2021 with a focus on rebuilding Texas into a powerhouse, but the program continued to show inconsistency, leaving many fans and analysts skeptical about the future.
Texas’ Struggles in the Post-Mack Brown Era
The lack of sustained success at Texas has been a major point of criticism for the program, and Finebaum’s comments are a reflection of this ongoing issue. Texas’ struggles in the post-Mack Brown era have been well-documented. The Longhorns have consistently underperformed relative to their talent level, leading to questions about the program’s leadership, culture, and ability to adapt to modern college football.
Under Strong, Texas went 16-21 in three seasons, failing to make a major impact in the Big 12. Herman had slightly more success, with a 32-18 record over four seasons, but he was unable to bring the program back to elite status. The lack of a clear and consistent identity on offense and defense has been a recurring theme during this stretch, and Texas has found itself caught in a cycle of mediocrity, unable to compete with the upper echelon of college football.
The fact that Texas has had several coaching changes in such a short period of time points to a deeper issue within the program. While coaching turnover is common in college football, especially at high-profile programs, Texas’ inability to find sustained success under multiple coaches highlights the underlying challenges the program faces. Finebaum’s concerns about Texas’ future are rooted in these issues—specifically, the inability to stabilize the program and establish a consistent winner.
The SEC Transition: A Daunting Challenge for Texas
One of the most significant factors contributing to Finebaum’s assessment is Texas’ upcoming move to the Southeastern Conference (SEC). Starting in 2024, Texas and Oklahoma will officially join the SEC, a move that significantly alters the landscape of college football. The SEC is widely considered the most dominant and competitive conference in the country, with powerhouse programs like Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and Florida regularly competing for national championships.
The SEC’s competitiveness and depth present a massive challenge for any team looking to break through and make a run at the College Football Playoff. Finebaum, an SEC expert, pointed out that Texas will be entering a league where the competition is fierce year in and year out. In recent years, Alabama and Georgia have been the two most dominant teams in the SEC, and it’s unlikely that Texas will be able to simply waltz into the conference and immediately compete for titles.
While Texas has the resources and facilities to be competitive in the SEC, the reality is that joining such a dominant conference is a huge step up in terms of competition. The SEC’s recruiting advantages, coaching pedigree, and historical success are all factors that will make it much more difficult for Texas to contend for the CFP. Even if the Longhorns improve under Sarkisian, the road to the playoff will be much harder with SEC powerhouses standing in their way.
Recruiting: Can Texas Compete with the SEC’s Elite?
One of the cornerstones of any successful college football program is recruiting. Finebaum’s concerns about Texas’ future are also tied to the program’s ability to recruit at the highest level. While Texas has traditionally been a recruiting hotbed, it faces stiff competition from other programs, particularly those in the SEC. Alabama, Georgia, LSU, and others have built elite recruiting pipelines, and Texas will need to match their level of talent acquisition to remain competitive in the SEC.
Despite being a national brand with deep resources, Texas has not been able to consistently attract top-tier talent in the same way that SEC programs have. This is especially true in the state of Texas, where top recruits are increasingly choosing out-of-state schools like Alabama and Oklahoma over the Longhorns. While Texas still has a recruiting advantage in terms of its location and resources, it will need to do a better job of securing top recruits to remain competitive at the highest level.
Additionally, Finebaum pointed out that Texas has struggled to develop talent at the same rate as other elite programs. While the Longhorns have landed top recruits, they have often underperformed on the field. This inability to maximize talent has been a key issue for Texas, and it’s something that Finebaum believes will hold the program back in the future.
The Road Ahead for Texas
Despite Finebaum’s pessimistic view, Texas still has several factors in its favor that could make a CFP run possible in the future. The program’s financial resources, commitment to winning, and fan base are all strengths that could help Texas eventually regain its footing. Sarkisian, while facing significant pressure, is a talented offensive mind who could eventually turn things around with better recruiting and player development.
Additionally, Texas has a history of bouncing back from down periods. The Longhorns have always been a program capable of rising to the occasion when the pieces fall into place. While Finebaum’s skepticism is understandable given the current state of the program, it’s also possible that Texas could surprise in the coming years and prove that it belongs among college football’s elite once again.
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