Middlesbrough is in the same metric group as Leicester and Ipswich, which may be excellent news.
HIGHLIGHTS
- Middlesbrough’s recent drop to 12th in the Championship table doesn’t reflect their potential shown in a six-game winning streak.
- Despite being second in xG standings, Middlesbrough have only scored 22 times, highlighting a need for better finishing.
- Middlesbrough’s defensive struggle, conceding more goals than expected, has been a major issue for the team this season.
Middlesbrough’s last two results have seen them drop to 12th in the Championship table.
Boro have had a frustrating campaign in which two spells of poor form have bookended a six-game winning streak.
The six victories in a row showcased the team’s full potential and highlighted that Michael Carrick’s side could compete at the very top of the second division standings.
And yet the team sits mid-table and three points adrift of the play-off places.
However, there are underlying numbers which suggest that the six-game winning streak is a fairer reflection of this squad’s true potential than the poor form that has surrounded it.
Who has the best xG in the Championship?
Leicester City lead the way in the Championship table, earning 39 from a possible 45 points.
The Foxes visit the Riverside on Saturday, where they will look to return to winning ways after suffering only their second defeat of the campaign last weekend to Leeds United.
And while Leicester deserve their place in the table, perhaps Saturday’s clash can be an opportunity to prove that Carrick’s side really should be alongside them.
Leicester have created the highest expected goals (xG) in the entire division, scoring 29 times from an xg of 26.4.
However, Middlesbrough are second in the xG standings, with 26.2.
But they’ve only scored 22 times.
Taking a deeper look at the Boro squad, there is no individual that is letting the team down too badly.
Emmanuel Latte Lath was the big summer arrival, signing after the departures of Chuba Akpom and Cameron Archer.
The Ivorian has so far scored twice from just four starts, but he has created an xG of 3.2, so he is getting into good positions and opening up good opportunities but is perhaps not making the most of them.
This is something that should improve as he continues to adapt to his new surroundings, especially if he maintains an impressive 0.67xG per 90 over a greater sample size.
The squad has a solid overall spread of xG, showing that there are a lot of attacking threats in the squad, but Latte Lath perhaps needs to take on a stronger role in leading the line to really take this team to the next level.
Where does Middlesbrough’s xG hurt?
However, it is defensively where Middlesbrough are truly suffering.
Despite a major goalkeeping change over the summer, with Seny Dieng replacing Zack Steffen, Boro are conceding at a higher rate than expecte, which was a significant issue last year as well.
Carrick’s side have an expected goals against (xGA) of 16, which is fifth best in the Championship.
However, Middlesbrough have conceded 23 times, which is a huge difference and is a big contributing factor to their mixed form.
Middlesbrough are the third best team in the division at creating more xG than they concede (a difference of 0.68 per game, only behind Leicester’s 0.87 and Leeds United’s 0.73).
But a poor finishing run at one end and a great finishing run at the other has seen them suffer a rather unlucky first 15 games of the cam
