The Houston Texans are mired in the AFC Playoff Wild Card Swamp.
So it’s logical that you may have forgotten how to conduct your Sundays when games matter, p[articularly because when the games YOUR team plays matter, then by definition, several other games matter. Right now, the Texans find themselves on the outside looking in, when it comes to the AFC Playoff race. They are the 8th seed in a conference where seven teams make the playoffs.
Here are the things you need to know about the AFC playoff race, as the calendar flips over to December this weekend, with six games to go in the Texans’ regular season:
The loss to the Jags was a nuclear bomb dropped on the Texans’ division title hopes
Had the Texans won on Sunday, they would have been tied with the Jaguars at 7-4, but they would have owned the tiebreaker, courtesy of their 2-0 head to head record. Instead, the Jags now sit at 8-3, and the Texans are tied with the Colts at 6-5. More importantly, the Jaguars are on track to own the second tiebreaker after head to head games, which is division record. The Jags are 4-1 in the division, the Texans are 1-2. The road to the postseason for the Texans is going to be via the wild card.
Okay, Sean, so what does the wild card picture look like?
I’ll tell you, it looks like a freaking swamp right now! A whole bunch of teams with shaky quarterback situations holding onto playoff spots, and they’re being chased by teams with actual competent (or even spectacular quarterbacks). Right now, the four division leaders are Kansas City, Jacksonville, Baltimore, and Miami. The wild card seeds are as follows:
5. Pittsburgh 7-4
6. Cleveland 7-4
7. Indianapolis 6-5
8. Houston 6-5
9. Denver 6-5
10. Buffalo 6-6
So yeah, the three wild card teams are quarterbacked by Kenny Pickett, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Gardner Minshew. The three teams chasing most closely have C.J. Stroud, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen. Weird times!
So what should I root for then?
Quite simply, root for the four division leaders (except maybe the Jaguars, if you hold out hope for a divisional miracle) against any of the teams that are in the wild card hunt. In fact, root for anybody playing Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Indy, Denver, or Buffalo. Every time those teams lose, it’s a small victory for the Texans’ playoff chances.
How many games do the Texans need to win for me to feel comfortable they’ll make the playoffs?
Since the NFL expanded the playoffs from six playoff teams per conference to seven back in 2020, here are the percentage of times a team with the following records made the postseason:
