As the regular season draws to a close, we’ll take a look each Friday at a game likely to affect the playoff race, along with the teams whose fortunes are rising and falling. And, so we don’t neglect the also-rans, we’ll see which teams are in the hunt for next year’s No 1 pick.

Game of the week

Denver Broncos (6-5) v Houston Texans (6-5)

Related: Dak Prescott makes MVP case as Dallas Cowboys hold off Seattle Seahawks

Story of the season: Cast your mind back to September: did anyone really think this match would be important in the playoff race? Could either team say they seriously had a shot? Maybe not, but they can now as both sit right on the bubble. Each were last in their division a year ago and in need of serious help. Why even focus on last season, in October the Broncos were 1-5 and should have been 0-6 if the Bears had not spectacularly imploded after leading 28-7. Yet here we are even after the vainglorious Dolphins decimated them 70-20. The difference since their abysmal start has been Vance Joseph’s defense. The coordinator needed some time to get cooking but they now lead the league in creating turnovers with 15 on their five-game winning streak while allowing just over 16 points a game. Houston have had a slightly smoother road thanks to the (rookie?) quarterback CJ Stroud. Aggressive, mistake averse and boasting an unlikely breakout rookie receiver in Tank Dell. DeMeco Ryans stellar debut as a head coach was underlined by Houston’s nail-biting win over the significantly overmatched Cincinnati Bengals. He is now second-favourite in Vegas to be coach of the year and deservedly so. However, Ryans will still be smarting after letting a chance to claw back ground on the AFC West leading Jaguars slip by in their 24-21 loss on Sunday while positively raging that his team handed the Carolina Panthers their only win so far. Only 119 yards in the air proving Stroud is capable of (and should be forgiven for) an off day, one he definitely needs to avoid to keep the Texans in the hunt.