Sunday’s Houston Texans 30-6 loss to the New York Jets felt like a disaster, and for good reason — it was a freaking disaster. The Texans allowed Zach Wilson, who was returning from yet another benching, to throw for over 300 yards and make the 2023 Texans defense look a whole lot like Lovie Smith’s 2022 Texans defense. That’s the definition of disaster.
Add in the injuries — Nico Collins’ calf, C.J. Stroud’s concussion, Blake Cashman’s hamstring, Will Anderson’s ankle — and now we are talking about Chernobyl level disaster. The one thing that brought a saving grace to our awful Sunday last weekend was the fact that a huge chunk of the teams the Texans are competing with for a playoff spot lost, too.
The bottom line is the Texans are playing relevant games, still, in mid-December. This is major progress from last season, the loss to the Jets notwithstanding. So let’s take inventory here, and see what the nine teams in the muck with the Texans have on the docket for the final four weeks. Here we go:
A 3-1 record down the stretch should get it done for the Texans
Since going to a seven playoff team per conference format in 2020, seven of the eight teams to finish 10-7 have made the postseason, and all seven of the teams to finish 11-6 have made the postseason. While this current AFC playoff picture is the biggest jumbled mess that I’ve ever seen, I still think 10-7 is going to do the trick, and the Texans have enough wins over other current 7-6 teams to where I feel the tiebreakers should favor them, especially if one of their wins down the stretch is a Week 18 avenging of the Week 2 loss to the Colts.
I’d still feel good about the Texans’ chances, but for the Stroud concussion
The Texans don’t play any world beaters down the stretch. Cleveland with Joe Flacco at quarterback is interesting, because of their elite defense and the fact that Flacco is actually playing at a high level since they pulled him off the couch three weeks ago. However, all bets are off regarding the Texans until we truly know the severity of C.J. Stroud’s concussion sustained against the Jets. If he has to miss this Sunday’s game against Tennessee, I still think that game is winnable. If he has to miss Christmas Eve against the Browns, that’s another story. In other words, the injury reports this week will convey a crucial window into the Texans’ playoff chances.
The Buffalo Bills win over the Chiefs created problems
Ironically, the 7-6 team with the worst seed (due to tiebreakers) is probably the most dangerous of all those teams. A Super Bowl contender coming into the season, the Buffalo Bills are 7-6, yet they have the fifth best point differential in football at +104, behind only the Cowboys (+188), 49ers (+175), Ravens (+143), and Dolphins (+118). The Bills host the Cowboys this weekend, so their margin for error may get trimmed on Sunday, but I promise you, of all the 7-6 teams on the board, the Bills are the one that the division leaders least want to see in the postseason.
The division races in the AFC South and AFC West should be very interesting down the stretch.
For the first time in years, we actually have some questions over whether the Chiefs will indeed win the AFC West. Hell, Patrick Mahomes might have to actually play a road playoff game for the first time in his NFL career (which is a remarkable fact, that he’s never played one in five postseasons). As for the AFC South, despite the catastrophic loss to the Jets, the Texans remain one game back of the Jaguars, leaving open another path, outside of the wild card, to find their way into the postseason. The Ravens defeating the Jaguars this weekend would be HUGE for the Texans, provided they can right the ship against the Titans, which again, is a HUGE “if” considering Stroud’s questionable health status.
