When the Cleveland Cavaliers announced Friday that two of their three leading scorers are set to undergo surgery, it raised questions about the remaining healthy star in that group.
With All-Star guard Darius Garland (jaw fracture) and 2022-23 All-Defensive first team Evan Mobley (arthroscopic surgery on his left knee) set to miss at least four weeks apiece — Mobley’s expected timeline is six to eight weeks — the Cavaliers must confront the possibility that a deep playoff run is no longer in the cards this season.
That, in turn, affects the future of All-NBA guard Donovan Mitchell, who has two years remaining on his contract before a player option allows him to test unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2025. Cleveland was already facing a difficult decision on whether to take Mitchell into a potential walk year in pursuit of a championship or trade him in time to recoup some of the draft picks sent to the Utah Jazz to acquire Mitchell in September last year.
If the Cavaliers believe their 2023-24 season has already been derailed by injury, they may have to move up the timetable for that decision in order to maximize Mitchell’s trade value. Let’s look at the questions Cleveland must answer, as well as potential suitors should the Cavaliers make their star guard available for trade.
Can Cleveland still be a playoff threat?
The Cavaliers did get some good news Saturday when they defeated the slumping Atlanta Hawks at home, improving to eighth in the East at 14-12. Mitchell’s presence, along with All-Star center Jarrett Allen, means Cleveland is hardly doomed without Garland and Mobley in the lineup for the next month.
The Cavaliers face a pair of problems as they project out the rest of their season, however. First, the Eastern Conference looks deeper than expected. With the emergence of the Orlando Magic, who beat Cleveland at home last week in a game Mobley missed but Garland played, there are six East teams on pace for 46 wins or more. That’s an upgrade from last season, when 42 wins were all it took to avoid the play-in tournament in the top-heavy conference.
Second, the Cavaliers simply haven’t been all that good at full strength compared to 2022-23, when they won 51 games and had the NBA’s second-best point differential at plus-5.4 PPG. In the 11 games where Cleveland had its first-choice starting lineup (Allen, Garland, Mitchell, Mobley and newcomer Max Strus), the team was 6-5 with a plus-2.5 point differential.
As a result, the Cavaliers can’t count on making up ground quickly when Garland and Mobley return, which suggests they’re more likely than not headed to the play-in tournament. ESPN Analytics’ BPI projections show Cleveland advancing directly to the playoffs as a top-six seed in just 37% of simulations.
Yes, the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers showed last year that it’s possible to make a deep playoff run from the play-in. Those were experienced playoff teams with recent Finals appearances to their credit, however. The Cavaliers underperformed in a first-round upset against the New York Knicks last season, and of their core players, only Mitchell has ever advanced to even the second round. If Cleveland can no longer count on anything more than a one-and-done playoff appearance, trading Mitchell now looks more palatable.
Can the Cavaliers reasonably keep Mitchell next season?
In an era where star players typically sign extensions rather than hitting free agency, Cleveland keeping Mitchell without one next summer would be unorthodox. Over the past two free agencies, just three players have become unrestricted within two years of an All-NBA appearance: Bradley Beal and James Harden in 2022 and Kyrie Irving last summer.
All three of those players were in substantially different situations than Mitchell. Beal had played his entire career for the Washington Wizards, signing a pair of extensions when the conditions were more favorable before re-signing in free agency. Harden and Irving had arrived with new teams the previous deadline after trade requests and both also chose to re-sign.
To find a better comparison for Mitchell requires going back to the 2018-19 season, when several teams had impending free agents they knew might look elsewhere at season’s end. The Boston Celtics acquired Irving with two years left until free agency, while the Toronto Raptors actually added Kawhi Leonard heading into his walk year. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors had former MVP Kevin Durant’s free agency hanging over their defense of two titles with him on the roster.
