Current top six
Portsmouth P33 69pts
Oxford P32 55pts
But all hope is not yet lost for the following reasons….
1) Posh have shown in a negative way what can happen in a short space of time. On February 1 Posh were four points off top spot with a game in hand on Portsmouth. It’s now February 14 and that gap has grown to 13 points with two matches in hand so change can happen quickly. This Posh team has shown they put good runs together and it could easily happen again. Expecting the top three to start losing regularly when they’ve only lost 17 of 95 matches between them this season is more fanciful though.
2) Posh have nine of their 15 remaining matches at home, which given the state of the playing surface might not seem that much of an advantage. But Posh were playing on a ploughed field at London Road the last time they won promotion to the Championship in the 2020-21 season so don’t rule them because of a terrible home playing surface. Sure it’s a team with a different style, but good technique and a deft first touch should be decisive on an uneven pitch and Posh have that throughout the first-choice starting XI. Anyway Posh have just played on two of the best pitches in the division and lost to two very modest teams so the bad pitch excuse now looks weak.
3) The top two have still to come to the Weston Homes Stadium which right now look like must win matches. Bolton are here on the final day of the season. If Posh win their games in hand and beat Pompey at home next month the gap between the teams will be down to a manageable four points. Bolton have a tough programme remaining in February including two Lancashire derbies on the road at the end of the month. First order of business for Posh is to win their last two games in February to ensure they are in position to take advantage of any slip ups.
4) The only away game left against a team in the current top seven for Posh is Oxford. It’s not a fearsome fixture list, providing the big names stay fit and available. The last three matches have shown what happens when star names are missing.
5) Are the current top three really that good? Pompey overpowered Posh early in the season before Darren Ferguson had his side fully revved up, but Posh were better than Bolton and Derby in away games this season. The Rams won at Posh after a ridiculous 15 minute spell they haven’t produced since. They will all drop points so let’s hope two of them drop enough.
