For three straight years, baseball has had a clear No. 1 free agent whose projected contract dominates conversations around the sport for months.
Now it’s Juan Soto’s turn.
The slugger, who returned to the New York Yankees’ lineup Monday night after missing three games with forearm inflammation, is having a career year in his first season in the Bronx. He won’t turn 26 until October — meaning plenty of length is on the table for his deal. And his agent is Scott Boras, who is set to negotiate the biggest contract of his career right after a season when many of his clients settled for shorter-term deals.
So we have one of the best hitters in the game (if not the best), currently playing for the most famous team in the sport, entering his prime years, and with MLB’s most prominent agent leading the negotiations. Add it all up and baseball is set for another winter with a potentially record-breaking contract.
How much will Soto get? What record will he aim for in his deal? And which teams have the best chance of signing him? We polled 28 MLB executives, agents and insiders to find out what Soto’s contract will look like this winter.
How much could Soto get?
Here are the 28 responses from our panel, grouped in tiers by total dollars.
Under $400 million (3): 1 year/$50 million, 8 years/$296 million, 10 years/$350 million
$400-$499 million (8): 10 years/$400 million, 10 years/$450 million, 11 years/$450 million, 12 years/$450 million, 13 years/$470 million, 12 years/$480 million (3x)
$500-599 million (14): 12 years/$500 million (2x), 13 years/$500 million (2x), 14 years/$500 million, 15 years/$500 million, 13 years/$502 million, 12 years/$510 million, 12 years/$525 million, 12 years/$528 million, 13 years/$540 million, 12 years/$550 million, 12 years/$552 million, 14 years/$588 million
At least $600 million (3): 14 years/$600 million, 12 years/$605 million, 10 years/$655 million
The average of all 28 projections is 11.6 years and $482.5 million, for a $41.4 million average annual value (AAV). There are four high outliers and four low outliers among our projections, so cutting those and averaging out
