A month ago, we were embroiled in the usual swirl of speculation, reporting and reaction that accelerates as the MLB trade deadline approaches. Then, just like that, it’s over, back to the regularly scheduled pennant races. Thanks for tuning in.
For teams in contention, the trade deadline and the pennant races are intrinsically linked. The players you acquire at the former are supposed to help you with the latter. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.
It’ll be years before we can declare ultimate winners and losers on individual deals. What we can do is see which teams have gleaned the biggest impact — so far — from the deadline rush, and which teams are still looking for a return.
In the past, we’ve revisited our initial analysis to the deals by looking at how the playoff odds have changed over the subsequent month. We’re doing that again, but we’ve added a look at the individuals involved in the deals by tallying up the win probability added for each player in their new organization, using the WPA model at TruMedia.
We’ve made two measures for each team: the post-trade WPA for each player the team added, as well as the WPA of any players sent away in the deals. Teams were then ranked by the net total of these two measurements.
One month ago, we thought we knew who won and lost the deadline, but given the early returns of what’s actually transpired on the field, how well are those assessments holding up?
The Royals’ 2024 season has morphed from surprising to shocking over the past month. Kansas City’s persistent rise to the top of the American League has been fueled by the same cast that put them in position to add at the deadline — Bobby Witt Jr, Salvador Perez and the starting pitchers. Still, without the moves J.J. Picollo made at the deadline, it’s doubtful the Royals would have gone from a 50/50 shot at the last wild card to a team with legitimate aspirations for a first-round bye. Michael Lorenzen has changed his pitch mix and posted a sub-.200 ERA as a Royal. Paul DeJong has five homers and a .968 OPS. And Lucas Erceg has been the single most impactful acquisition of the entire deadline, giving the Royals the lockdown high-leverage reliever they had to have. So far: five saves, 16 whiffs against one walk and 13⅓ scoreless innings.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Jack Flaherty has been very good over his first five Dodgers starts, but the revelation has been Michael Kopech. Kopech has tweaked his arsenal under the Dodgers’ guidance, posted a 0.68 ERA with a 19:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio and entered the saves mix for Dave Roberts. The flip side of that net WPA figure is Miguel Vargas, who started his White Sox career by hitting .097 over his first 18 games. If all of this reads as much an indictment of the White Sox as a slap on the back for the Dodgers, so be it. As for the Dodgers, they were a cinch for the playoffs then and remain so. The real story will be told in October.
Four contenders that helped themselves
San Diego Padres
Tanner Scott (two saves), Jason Adam (21:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio) and Bryan Hoenig (1.20 ERA) have all pitched well. The real revelation has been starter Martin Perez, who has a 2.70 ERA over five starts for San Diego. All in all, the real story of this deadline will be told in the playoffs, when we get to see the super-deep revamped bullpen lined up in a postseason context. Happily, for San Diego fans, the Padres have done nothing but solidify their shot at the bracket since the deadline. After that run ends, it’ll be a few years before we know if the considerable collection of talent A.J. Preller dealt away at the deadline was worth it.
