It feels kind of odd to write anything about the Houston Astros. For almost a decade now, they’ve been the Yankees’ playoff demon. The 2015 Wild Card Game, the 2017 & 2019 ALCS heartbreakers, being completely swept aside in 2022…no postseason matchup with the ‘Stros has ended well for the Bronx Bombers.
2024 record: 88-73
Manager: Joe Espada
Top hitter by fWAR: Yordan Alvarez, LF (5.2 fWAR)
Top pitcher by fWAR: Framber Valdez, SP (3.6 fWAR)
But that four-game sweep down in Houston to kick off the season had a number of us thinking that this year, maybe the big bad Astros weren’t quite as invulnerable as they’ve been for nearly 10 years. Yes, they won the AL West for the fourth straight season, but they’ve won their fewest games in a 162 game season since 2016. Their division title was aided by the Seattle Mariners being complete frauds and the Texas Rangers failing to build off last year’s World Series win, and that’s before mentioning the Angels and A’s.
Over the last 10 seasons, their offense is the sixth-best they’ve produced, far below those terrifying lineups that bounced the Yankees in league championship appearances. Their ERA is pedestrian compared to their own example, and their FIP is seventh of the last ten campaigns. They are not as good as we have seen them be.
I’m not a fan of the idea of an “X-factor” but the closest to that might end up being the health of Yordan Alvarez’s leg. Alvarez, whom I like to think of as Darth freakin’ Vader, has been day-to-day all week with a knee sprain, and while manager Joe Espada is confident the slugger can resume baseball activities, the idea of a weak front side for a hitter as talented as Yordan does take away some of the thump in the lineup. 75 percent of Yordan is still better than 75 percent of baseball, but these are the edges, those marginal advantages, that make me more confident the Yankees are finally the better team.
Of course if the Astros as an entity are the Yankees’ Babadook, Justin Verlander has been Satan himself when it comes to the postseason. Verlander’s dealt with two IL stints this year for shoulder inflammation, and when he’s been on the bump he’s had the worst season of his career — or at least, the worst since a cup of coffee in 2005. I don’t imagine we’ll see the future Hall of Famer in the rotation for the Wild Card Series, and possibly not in the postseason rotation at all.
