Forecasts and Odds for Ohio State vs. Tennessee’s College Football Playoff First-Round Matchup
As college football season draws to a close and the best teams in the nation prepare for the College Football Playoff (CFP), one of the most anticipated matchups features the Ohio State Buckeyes against the Tennessee Volunteers in a highly anticipated first-round clash. Both programs have had stellar seasons, and this game promises to be an exciting and competitive showdown, with national championship aspirations on the line.
With only four spots available in the playoff, Ohio State and Tennessee have earned their place in the field by excelling in different aspects of the game. In this article, we’ll break down the key factors leading into the game, analyze the forecasts and odds for the matchup, and examine how both teams stack up against each other heading into this pivotal contest.
Team Profiles: Ohio State Buckeyes
The Ohio State Buckeyes have long been one of the premier programs in college football, and 2024 has been no different. Under the guidance of head coach Ryan Day, Ohio State has proven itself to be a juggernaut in the Big Ten, with an offense that can put up points in a hurry and a defense that can stifle opposing offenses. Heading into the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes are once again one of the most feared teams in the country.
Key Players:
- Quarterback: Kyle McCord
Ohio State’s offense runs through quarterback Kyle McCord, who has been an efficient and effective leader for the Buckeyes this season. With the ability to make all the throws, McCord has led Ohio State to a strong season, utilizing a talented group of wide receivers and a powerful running back room. His decision-making will be crucial in the playoff, particularly when facing the pressure of a high-stakes game. - Wide Receiver: Marvin Harrison Jr.
One of the best wide receivers in college football, Marvin Harrison Jr. is an absolute mismatch for any secondary. His size, speed, and ability to go up and get the ball make him a nightmare for opposing defenses. The Volunteers’ secondary will have its hands full trying to contain Harrison, who will likely play a key role in Ohio State’s offensive strategy. - Defensive Line: J.T. Tuimoloau
On defense, Ohio State has a dominant defensive line, and J.T. Tuimoloau stands out as a key disruptor. Tuimoloau has been a constant presence in opposing backfields this season, recording multiple sacks and tackles for loss. His ability to pressure the quarterback will be crucial against Tennessee’s offense, especially if they try to establish a fast-paced, high-scoring attack.
Season Summary:
Ohio State enters the College Football Playoff with a record of 12-1, having only dropped a close game to Michigan in a rivalry battle that saw them miss out on the Big Ten Championship. Despite that loss, their overall performance was enough to secure a playoff berth. The Buckeyes are a well-rounded team, with a potent offense that can put up points quickly and a defense capable of stopping almost any attack.
Team Profiles: Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee, under head coach Josh Heupel, has emerged as one of the top programs in the SEC and a major contender for the College Football Playoff. Heupel’s high-octane offense, known for its speed and big-play ability, has carried the Volunteers to another impressive season. Tennessee has consistently been a top-10 team throughout the year, thanks in large part to an explosive offense that can strike from anywhere on the field.
Key Players:
- Quarterback: Joe Milton III
Tennessee’s offense is spearheaded by Joe Milton III, a quarterback known for his big arm and ability to make deep throws. Milton has been effective in running Heupel’s fast-paced offense, finding success in both the air and on the ground. His deep ball accuracy and decision-making will be crucial against a talented Ohio State defense that has the ability to lock down passing lanes. - Wide Receiver: Squirrel White
Squirrel White has emerged as Tennessee’s most reliable playmaker on the outside. His speed and ability to stretch the field are key components of the Volunteers’ attack. White’s ability to get open against Ohio State’s defensive backs will be a key factor in Tennessee’s ability to score. - Defensive Line: Tyree West
Tennessee’s defense is not as renowned as its offense, but they have playmakers on that side of the ball as well. Defensive tackle Tyree West has been a disruptive force, particularly in the run game. Against a potent rushing attack from Ohio State, West’s ability to clog up lanes and get after McCord will be important for the Volunteers to stay competitive.
Season Summary:
The Tennessee Volunteers have been one of the top teams in the SEC, boasting a 11-2 record heading into the College Football Playoff. While they may not have the same level of defensive talent as Ohio State, their offense is one of the most explosive in the nation. Tennessee’s ability to outscore opponents has been their calling card, and they will need to continue to rely on that strength to compete against a talented Ohio State squad.
Breaking Down the Matchup
Offensive Styles:
Ohio State and Tennessee are two teams that thrive on offense, but they operate in very different ways. Ohio State is known for a balanced offensive attack that can beat teams both through the air and on the ground. With a strong running game led by their talented running backs and a top-tier passing game anchored by McCord and Harrison, the Buckeyes can adapt to any situation.
On the other hand, Tennessee’s offense is built around speed and tempo. Heupel’s system is predicated on spreading the field and using quick passes and deep shots to create big plays. Tennessee’s ability to hit on explosive plays will be key in this matchup, as they’ll need to stretch Ohio State’s defense and keep them on their heels. Joe Milton’s arm strength and the speed of their wide receivers like Squirrel White are central to this strategy.
Defensive Strategies:
While Ohio State has one of the nation’s top defenses, Tennessee’s defense has been inconsistent at times. The Volunteers will need to be at their best in this game, as they face a talented offense with multiple weapons. If Tennessee can slow down Ohio State’s run game and force McCord to make mistakes, they will put themselves in a good position.
Ohio State, on the other hand, will need to contain Tennessee’s big-play potential. By pressuring Milton and disrupting Tennessee’s rhythm, Ohio State can force them into long down-and-distance situations, where their defense excels. The Buckeyes’ defensive line, led by Tuimoloau, will be critical in limiting Tennessee’s ability to push the ball downfield.
Special Teams:
Both teams have solid special teams units, but Ohio State has a slight edge in this area. The Buckeyes have been more consistent in their kicking game, and their return units have been explosive. Tennessee will need to avoid giving Ohio State advantageous field position and capitalize on any opportunities in the return game.
Forecast and Odds for the Game
Heading into this matchup, Ohio State enters as the favorite, with most sportsbooks giving them a slight edge over Tennessee. The Buckeyes are currently favored by around 4 to 5 points, depending on the sportsbook, with an over/under total of approximately 61 points.
Ohio State -4.5
The Buckeyes are the stronger overall team on paper, with a more complete roster, especially on defense. Ohio State’s ability to limit Tennessee’s explosive plays will be key to their success. The Buckeyes are also known for their ability to make adjustments in big games, and their coaching staff will likely have a game plan in place to contain the Volunteers’ high-powered offense.
Tennessee +4.5
While Tennessee is the underdog, their offense cannot be overlooked. The Volunteers have shown the ability to outscore top-tier teams throughout the season, and they will rely on Milton’s arm and their wide receivers to generate big plays. If they can keep Ohio State’s defense off balance and score early, they could pull off an upset. Tennessee’s defense has been solid enough to keep them in games, but they will need to step up in this one to have a chance.
Over/Under: 61 Points
With both teams capable of putting up big numbers on offense, the over/under of 61 points suggests that this will be a high-scoring affair. Ohio State and Tennessee both have potent offenses, but Ohio State’s defense should have the edge in slowing down Tennessee’s explosive plays. However, Tennessee’s ability to strike quickly means that this game could see a lot of points.
