With pitchers and catchers reporting next month, we’ve hit the final stretch of the 2023-24 MLB offseason — and there are still plenty of moves left to be made.
Where will the top remaining free agents land? Will we see any more blockbuster trades? Will the Boston Red Sox do something big before Opening Day?
They’re the top position player, top starting pitcher and, by a wide margin, top relief pitcher remaining in free agency, all worthy of nine-figure contracts — but all with real obstacles standing in the way. Bellinger is a 28-year-old former MVP who possesses elite power, speed and defense. But he slashed just .193/.256/.355 from 2021 to 2022, and some of the underlying numbers behind his resurgent 2023 season — exit velocity, barrel percentage and hard-hit rate specifically — have alarmed executives. Snell won his second Cy Young Award last year, but he did so while pitching beyond the sixth inning only three times. Hader is arguably the game’s best closer, but his dominance is occurring at a time when teams are less willing to spend exorbitant sums on one reliever. (The record-setting $102 million contract Edwin Diaz secured with the New York Mets last offseason is seen by many as a potential outlier, given his significance to a team owned by the sport’s richest owner.) Things can change in an instant this time of year; all it takes is one team stepping up its efforts for this prediction to be flatly wrong. But the money Bellinger, Snell and Hader seek — and, in many ways, deserve — doesn’t appear to be there at the moment.
Jesse Rogers: Scott Boras will fill multiple spots for one team
Bold will come in the form of agent Scott Boras. He has a lot of players still left on the board, including Bellinger, Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins. His clients tend to congregate on teams — see Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for evidence — and the end of this offseason will be no different. He’ll maneuver multiple players to one team — be it the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants or even the Chicago Cubs. That latter team rarely does big deals with Boras clients, so it would be a departure from the norm to sign multiple players of his. Still, the Cubs’ offseason has been so — can we say slow? — since hiring manager Craig Counsell, that something outside the norm would be a welcome relief for fans.
David Schoenfield: The Mariners will sign Blake Snell
OK, we’re looking for something bold and outrageous, right? I’m holding out belief that the Mariners have been putting up a smokescreen all offseason and will still do something big that might, you know, make the team better. Because all president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has done so far is essentially shuffle around players and salaries without improving the team (except perhaps for Mitch Garver at DH). He has at least created a little more flexibility for future payrolls with the Robbie Ray-for-Mitch Haniger/Anthony DeSclafani trade.
And while the Mariners cry poor, their payroll remains about $8 million below last year’s — and Snell wants to pitch for his hometown team. He raised the 12th Man flag at a Seahawks game. He was at the college football national championship game in University of Washington gear. He grew up idolizing Ken Griffey Jr. How can they make it happen? They’ll have to go higher than last year’s payroll — god forbid — but they can backload Snell’s contract and give him a lower salary for 2024. The rotation would be Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, with DeSclafani and Bryan Woo in reserve. That’s how you can topple the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.
