Wild-card weekend seemed like an inflection point in the big picture of NFL teams contending for a Super Bowl. On a weekend in which recent Super Bowl attendees — the Eagles and Rams — were sent packing, a series of teams with young quarterbacks advanced. After three seasons with a combined record of 11-38-1, C.J. Stroud led the Texans to a blowout win over the Browns. And while the Packers don’t quite fit that definition, a team that was 3-6 and wondering whether it had made the right choice at quarterback saw Jordan Love light up the Cowboys in a 48-32 victory in Arlington, Texas.
My original article on the value of a quarterback on a rookie deal dates back to 2013. The four quarterbacks I highlighted in that piece were 2012 breakouts Robert Griffin, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, the latter of whom is the only one remaining in the NFL. Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz have won Super Bowls as their team’s primary quarterback on a rookie deal since then, and nearly half of the remaining playoff field is quarterbacked by a player on his first contract.
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Which of the teams with quarterbacks on rookie deals is best positioned to win a Super Bowl over the next three seasons? The teams in the actual playoff bracket have a leg up on the competition, of course, but Houston’s sudden turnaround is a reminder of just how quickly the right quarterback (and a few key players around him) can change the complexion of a franchise and its ceiling.
Right now, there are 14 teams that have starting quarterbacks on a rookie deal who haven’t yet earned a multiyear extension. (Love took a small pay cut in 2024 to have his fifth-year option picked up by the Packers.) Let’s sort through them and their chances of winning a Super Bowl before 2026, after which most of these quarterbacks will either be eligible for a second deal, on one or playing somewhere else.
I’ll start with the teams further away from contention quickly before hitting the top six:
Group I: When rookie quarterback contracts go wrong
There’s a series of teams with rookie quarterbacks under contract that will likely look to replace or challenge those quarterbacks this offseason. I’m not sure they’re gaining a meaningful advantage by having that passer under center. These teams are listed below in alphabetical order, and they’re in relatively different phases of contention, but they’re linked by the holes they have at the position.
The Atlanta Falcons are the sort of team that could make a quick leap. A new-look defense with six new starters imported from other teams finished 12th in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. The offensive line is sound, and you don’t need me to tell you about their playmakers after they have used three top-10 draft picks on skill-position players in recent years. All of that led to a 7-10 record in 2023, but much of the blame for that has been placed on coach Arthur Smith, who was fired after Week 18.
All that’s left for the Falcons to do is land difference-makers at the two most important positions in any organization: coach and quarterback. Desmond Ridder was benched multiple times this season, and third-round picks who disappoint in their crack at the starting job typically don’t get another year to prove whether they can do it. Ridder would be the incumbent by default if Atlanta doesn’t add anybody, but the new coach seems likely to bring in at least one passer to serve as the presumptive starter in 2024.
