October 6, 2024

MLB strikeout predictions on May 17: Dodgers vs. Fade Frankie

We went 2-1 in strikeout props on Thursday with two plus-money winners, and Tyler Glasnow was one punch out away from giving us a 3-0 sweep. Let’s gun for the sweep on Friday with our last three-pack of K props for the week.

Tarik Skubal under 6.5 Ks (-146 FanDuel)

Tigers at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

We love Tarik Skubal as much as anyone, but this is the perfect matchup to fade him. The Arizona Diamondbacks have an impressive 19.6 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season, and they have the highest batting average and second-highest OPS against lefties. Current D-backs hitters have faced Skubal only 20 combined times, but they’ve crushed him for a .444 batting average, a .424 xwOBA and a 15.0 percent K rate.

Frankie Montas under 4.5 Ks (-105 DraftKings)

Reds at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Frankie Montas is likely dreading this matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In 63 combined plate appearances against the right-hander, current Dodgers hitters are batting.418 with a .493 xwOBA, a .740 expected slugging percentage and an 11.1 percent strikeout rate. Yikes! Montas has gone under 4.5 Ks in five of his seven starts this season. We don’t see him improving upon that mark against a lineup that consistently crushes him.

Cole Ragans 10+ strikeouts (+285 FD)

Athletics at Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET

Let’s have some fun with our final pick of the week, shall we? Cole Ragans ranks in the 84th percentile in whiff rate and the 69th percentile in chase rate this season, and this is a dream matchup for him to take advantage of those skills. The Oakland Athletics rank dead last in MLB in whiff rate (29.6 percent) and chase contact rate (47.6 percent). The As also have the highest strikeout rate in the league over the past three games (32.4 percent), and they’ve been much worse against left-handed pitching all year. This is well worth a sprinkle.

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